2023-09-28 20:40:00
It was a devastating week for Polish-Ukrainian relations. It began with Warsaw’s boycott of the EU’s decision not to extend the embargo on Ukrainian grain imports to the EU imposed to protect farmers in Poland and four other Eastern European countries. Kiev called the closure of the Polish border unacceptable and sued Warsaw at the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Later in the week, the UN General Assembly witnessed a cringeworthy exchange between Polish President Duda and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky. And Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki’s statement that Poland would not supply any more weapons to Ukraine and would instead invest in its own defense shocked the international public.
Not long ago, the Polish-Ukrainian pair was hailed as the axis of a new Europe that would emerge after the end of the Russian war. But after the events of last week, this seems to be just a pipe dream.
Piotr Buras heads the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Campaign fever ahead of Poland’s October 15 parliamentary election, with a lot at stake, may partly explain Polish politicians’ nervousness. The ruling PiS party is at risk of losing power and is competing with the far-right Confederation for nationalist or rural voters who are increasingly skeptical of Poland’s support for Ukraine.
They like to refer to the “defense of national interests,” even if their dramatic announcements are hardly in line with reality. Let’s take weapons deliveries: Polish depots are almost empty after Warsaw delivered almost 400 tanks and a lot of equipment worth around three billion euros to Ukraine in the past few months.
400
Panzer and Warsaw has delivered a lot of equipment to Kiev in the past few months.
The fact that there is not much left to deliver is nothing to be ashamed of. But simply stating this would be far less impressive for PiS’s target audience than emphasizing the importance of national defense and garnishing it with anti-Ukrainian undertones.
The supposed grain problem
The grain problem is also an example of problems being invoked for election campaign purposes rather than solved. The main problem for Polish farmers is the very low grain prices. However, these are determined by international markets and not caused by Ukrainian imports.
Experts in the grain trade are of the opinion that no major market distortions are expected this fall due to Ukrainian imports. However, farmers are very angry and there is no time for differentiated messages. It is easier to blame Brussels, Berlin and now Kiev.
Poland ends arms deliveries to Ukraine Why Warsaw is so bad for Kiev
However, the crisis in Polish-Ukrainian relations cannot be explained solely by electoral tactics. The dispute over grain testifies to the structural challenges for bilateral relations that will inevitably arise from Ukraine’s integration process into the EU.
And the negative emotions suddenly erupting between the two capitals are a reminder that the war and Poland’s remarkable support for Ukraine have not eliminated long-standing grievances. Despite the romantic phase since February 2022, relations between Ukraine and Poland require skillful diplomacy.
Poland’s relative importance for Ukraine has declined.
Piotr Buras
Poland, as one of the largest EU member states and as an advocate for Ukraine, has a special responsibility in this regard. But Warsaw’s miserable foreign policy is damaging both the country’s ambitions and its partnership with its current most important neighbor.
In fact, Poland’s current dispute with Ukraine is in large part the result of its marginalized position in Europe. The unique support for Ukraine and the geographical location as a logistical hub initially enhanced Poland’s role in the Western alliance after the outbreak of the Russian war.
Permanent conflict between the PiS government and the EU
Since other countries have joined in and Dutch, Swedish or German equipment is now also being supplied to Ukraine, Poland’s relative importance for Ukraine has decreased. In addition, Warsaw was unable to keep its promise to shift Europe’s center of gravity eastward.
The PiS government is in an ongoing conflict with the EU Commission over the rule of law, its relations with Germany are catastrophic and regional leadership is an illusion.
Kiev also now seems to be paying less attention to relations with Warsaw and is fighting hard when it serves its interests (see grain crisis).
The failed foreign policy of the PiS
In view of the upcoming debate on EU reform, enlargement and reconstruction, Ukraine has refocused on the countries that play a larger role in the EU, especially Germany. Particularly bitter for Warsaw is Zelensky’s declaration of support for Berlin’s permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
More on the topic at Tagesspiegel Plus
Predictions before the election in Poland No clear winner, blockade – and then what? War and negotiations in Ukraine Relinquishing territory does not create peace First migrant agitation, then visa scandal Poland’s PiS party is in trouble before the election
No, Poland has not made a U-turn in Ukraine. But PiS’s failed foreign policy is severely limiting the influence and impact of Kiev’s most important ally.
When the dust settles after Poland’s election, the new government will urgently need to ensure that its partners have more reasons to take Warsaw’s positions into account. Otherwise, the Polish-Ukrainian rift could undermine the West’s efforts in the long war against Russia.
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