2023-10-25 13:10:00
After the unexpected result of the general elections of last October 22the consulting firms begin to release the first opinion polls on what may happen in the balloting which will take place on November 19 between the candidates of La Libertad Avanza and Unión por la Patria. CB Consultant revealed a scenario of a large birth with a small advantage of Javier Miley in (50.7%) about Sergio Massa (49.3%).
But the second measurement that corresponds to Projections shows a completely different scenario: 44,6 % for Massa; 34,2 % for Mercy. To which he adds that 8.3% do not know who to vote for; 5.9% will vote blank or challenge the vote; and 7%, would not go to vote.
The paradoxical thing is that so much CB Consultant as Projections were two of the consultants who predicted that Massa and Milei will compete in the second round.
The runoff predictions
Projections carried out the study between October 23 and 24 among 1,459 actual cases and online using geolocated sample points. And with a margin of error of 2.63 percent.
According to this survey, Massa and Milei are quite even in image. While the Unión por Todos candidate reaches 40.3 percent positive image, the libertarian leader reaches 38.9 percent. And they are also very close regarding the negative image: Massa 57.7% and Milei 56.4%.
What were the surveys that confirmed that Massa and Milei are going to runoff?
When dividing voting intention by sex, the 51.3 of women and 37.3 of men lean towards the Massa-Rossi formula while 29,2 and 39.7 percent respectively opt for Milei-Villaruel.
Regarding ages, Projections reveals that: 39.8% of voters aged 16 to 34 opt for Massa; and the 40.6 per mile. As the age of the voters increases, the voting intention for the current Minister of Economy increases: 50.8% (35/54); 44.8% (55 years old); while Milei reaches 31.1 percent (35/54) and 27.7% (55 years old).
With these figures it is clearly reflected that The female vote is what eludes Milei while the young vote (one of Milei’s strengths) in this case It is much more even than previously thought..
When asking the respondents What would be the probability that you vote for Sergio Massa or Javier Miles? The responses were divided as follows: 44.8% said they would vote for the Unión por la Patria candidate and 37.4% for the Libertad Avanza candidate.
FL/ff
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