Faced with this refusal, could Vladimir Putin carry out his threat? “It’s possible”replies Bruno Colmant, “but everyone would lose. The Russians would no longer be able to export, and we would have a cut.”
Russian gas exports now represent 45% of European gas imports. Turning off the tap could therefore have repercussions on this scale. At the national level, on the other hand, the economist is much more reassuring: “Belgian gas comes mainly from Norway (41%, editor’s note) and the Netherlands (34.5%, editor’s note)”, assures Bruno Colmant. Only 6% of Belgium’s gas supply comes from Russia. So there shouldn’t be a supply problem.
Words that also confirms the office of the Federal Minister of EnergyTinne Van der Straeten (Groen), especially since Belgium “only uses a third of the gas imported, the remaining two thirds being intended for export.” “The current situation shows that the diversification of gas from different producing countries is the right strategy and allows us to have confidence in the security of supply to Belgium. Even without Russian gas, the supply is assured. Belgium can easily import natural gas from other sources through various channels, by ship and by pipeline, in all possible directions.”
And our country could also see the transit of gas from other producing countries through our gas pipelines increase to neighboring countries, which are more dependent on Russian imports.
A drop or disruption in supply from Russia will have an impact on the price of natural gas in Belgium
“On the other hand, gas prices could increase and, by definition, those of electricity too since they are modeled on gas prices”, adds Bruno Colmant. Indeed, as explained by Laurent Jacquet, director of the CREG (Commission for the Regulation of Electricity and Gas), “because the price of natural gas on the wholesale markets which serve as a reference for Belgium is set at the level of Western Europe and is determined by the mechanism of supply and demand, a drop or break in supply from Russia will have an impact on the price of natural gas in Belgium.” However, it is impossible to predict how significant these increases could be.