Each workday begins with a weather briefing at the Meteorological Service Singapore, where forecasters review overnight developments and assess current conditions.
Predicting where haze will travel is far from straightforward, even with all the information available to meteorologists.
“What’s difficult is haze can develop very differently each time, because smoke plumes travel hundreds of kilometres,” Gabriel Lim, an executive meteorologist at the National Environment Agency, told CNA.
“As it travels, it may disperse, it may change its direction, it may travel at different heights,” Lim said, noting that rainfall can also affect how much haze remains in the air.
To make their assessments, forecasters study satellite images to identify fires and track smoke plumes. They also examine wind and rainfall forecasts alongside models that estimate how haze may spread and affect air quality.
“We believe that no particular one model is always correct, so we cross-check it with multiple models,” Lim said.
Looking back at one especially tough haze situation, he noticed thick haze situated over Kalimantan, located hundreds of kilometres away, making its gradual way toward Singapore.
Although the smoke was visible as it drew nearer, he remained uncertain whether the thickest portion would actually hit Singapore or how badly air quality would be impacted.
“The thing is, in this whole dense patch of haze, there were some (parts) that were more dense than others, and there are some parts of cleaner air,” Lim said.
The uncertainties made the forecast particularly challenging, given the potential consequences of getting it wrong.
“There’s a lot at stake because a lot of stakeholders rely on the forecast to make decisions,” Lim told CNA.
For Lim, the responsibility behind a haze forecast can weigh on him long after he leaves the office.
“In the middle of a significant haze episode, I can’t really switch off fully after work,” he told CNA, adding that he keeps looking at the latest satellite images and replaying his assessments.
Growing up, Lim was fascinated by extreme weather depicted in movies, which led him to environmental studies and eventually to a job opening at the Meteorological Service Singapore.
Today, as part of the team monitoring regional haze conditions, he takes comfort in his colleagues.
“It’s not easy, but it’s comforting to know that I have a team of forecasters with me, and they are all skilled professionals who have been doing this a long time,” Lim said.
