Pressures on oil prices .. US contraction for two consecutive quarters and weak data for factories in Asia

Oil analysts expected that crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate this week due to fears of economic stagnation and high inflation rates with their negative impact, in contrast to expectations that oil supplies will be affected by the crisis in Russia, where Brent crude fell by about 11 percent, and Texas crude fell by about 8 percent, on the other hand. Weekly basis.
They explained to Al-Eqtisadiah that the oil market witnessed a remarkable decline in prices, especially during the past week with the decline of West Texas Intermediate crude from prices that were close to 105 dollars per barrel.
In this context, Ross Kennedy, managing director of QHA Energy Services, says: The downward pressures on oil prices continue and lead to more volatility due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy more, which limits the demand for crude oil.
He explained that the rise of the dollar is another typical bearish factor for crude oil, as crude oil priced in dollars has become more expensive for foreign buyers, and the demand for gasoline is declining very abnormally for this time of year in light of the summer driving season in the United States, pointing out that Standard Chartered Bank confirmed that the driving season in the United States did not materialize normally or according to prior expectations, as a significant drop in demand was detected in June and July, which may lead to a rise in demand during the current month.
For his part, Damir Tesperat, Director of Business Development at Technic Group International, stated that the demand for crude oil witnessed relative declines due to the intensification of inflation and the resort to consumers to rationalize driving on the roads, pointing out that the demand for gasoline in the United States decreased by 7.6 percent over the year.
He pointed to international reports that believe that this year’s driving season could be worse for gasoline demand compared to the closing of the summer of 2020, and West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude fell last week to levels not seen in the market since last February before the war in Ukraine. Global Economic Concerns, Low Actual Demand and Bearish Inventory Report Case of Falling Prices.
For his part, Peter Bacher, an economic analyst and specialist in legal affairs for energy, says that price fluctuations will continue this week, as the state of oil supply continues despite the “OPEC +” group’s announcement of an increase in production for September, while US economic reports indicated that the economy contracted for two consecutive quarters, as well. More negative economic news came out of China and Japan in the form of weak factory data, while the Energy Information Administration reported that gasoline demand last week was 9 percent lower than it was a year ago at this time.
He added that there has been a broad consensus in the market for months that the targeted production levels for oil face investment difficulties and instability in some producing countries, pointing to the expectations of two major oil and gas producers in the United States, ExxonMobil and Chevron, for significant increases in oil prices. production next year.
Ervi Nahar, an expert in oil and gas affairs at African Leadership International, added that the continued strong uncertainty in the oil market leads to the difficulty of predicting the price path and means more fluctuations and fluctuations, as the Energy Information Agency highlighted that the high uncertainty is due to several factors. In the forefront of the escalation of the war in Ukraine.
She pointed out that economic activity may be less strong than assumed in advance expectations, which could lead to recording less energy consumption than expected, explaining that the factors that raise uncertainty about energy supplies include how sanctions affect Russian oil production, in addition to decisions The potential “OPEC +” production in the coming period, in addition to anticipating the rate of increase in US oil and natural gas production.
On the other hand, with regard to prices at the end of last week, oil prices rose slightly on Friday, rebounding from their lowest levels since last February, as concerns about supply shortages were offset by the expected decline in demand for fuel.
Brent crude futures ended the day 0.85 percent higher, at $94.92 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 0.53 percent, at $89.01 a barrel.
Recession fears have risen since the Bank of England warned Thursday of a prolonged recession after it raised interest rates by the most since 1995. This week, the “OPEC +” group agreed to increase its target for oil production by 100,000 barrels per day in September, but this was one of the The smallest increases since such quotas were introduced in 1982, according to OPEC data.
Supply concerns are expected to escalate as winter approaches, as European Union sanctions banning offshore imports of Russian crude and oil products are set to take effect on December 5.
On the other hand, the Baker Hughes International Drilling Activity Report stated that the total number of active rigs in the United States decreased by 3 this week, as the total number of rigs decreased to 764 this week – 273 rigs higher than the number of rigs this time in 2021.
He pointed out that oil rigs in the United States decreased by 7 this week to 598, as gas rigs rose by 4 to reach 161, the number of various rigs stabilized at 5, and the number of rigs in the Permian Basin decreased from 4 to 347 this week. Eagle Ford rigs remained unchanged at 72, pointing out that oil and gas rigs in the Permian were 104 higher than they were this time last year.
The report noted that crude oil production in the United States remained unchanged at 12.1 million barrels per day in the week ending July 29, according to the latest Energy Information Administration data.