Two eventful seasons, two good dynamics before the arrival of play offs, but two different results. The preamble to this series between Atlanta and Miami is as promising as it is doubtful. With on the one hand a Heat first in the conference, which finds a full and healthy workforce against the Hawks carried by a sparkling Trae Young, victorious in the play in, but diminished by injuries and irregularity, both offensively and defensively. 3 wins out of 4 possible for Miami during each of the regular season oppositions, a correction inflicted immediately on Sunday night. Is the task insurmountable for the Hawks?
Hawks with lead in the wing
The defense of the paint, the number of possessions played through the rebound are all key elements needed to monitor during a series.
Exist without Capela
If the Hawks want to be able to exist at the barrage of 3pt shooting offered by the Heat, and the aggressiveness of Bam Adebayo, it will have to go through a Clint Capela at the level, but above all in shape. Injured during play in against Charlotte and rarely at 100% throughout the season, he remains the defensive pillar of an Atlanta team that finds few solutions to hold the aggressive play of Adebayo and Butler. Without Capela, it falls to Okongwu, also little spared by the infirmary, to raise his voice. If he has progressed in all of his statistics (8.2 points, 5.9 rebounds), the challenge remains high and unbalanced for the sophomore. At his side, John Collins will be directly opposite Bam Adebayo. Admittedly, Collins is also diminished by injuries, but is forced to return to help the diminished collective of the Hawks. Touched in the finger and in the arch of the foot, this did not prevent him from being generous in the effort during the first game. Enough to save the game? No. But enough to give Atlanta cause for hope. 10 points, 4 rebounds for 21 minutes of play and a good defense on Adebayo, Collins provides a floor level that is sorely lacking in Hawks on his inside position.
If the interior sector of the comrades of Young is in difficulty, the external defense meanwhile completely foundered last night. The problem does not date from last night, the Hawks have a defensive rating of 113.1, and offer one of the worst defenses away from the ball (the worst currently). Collins and Capela have the best defensive win share of their team with 1.9 and 1.3 respectively. Behind them ? A collective sinking, even Deandre Hunter however imperial in this field last year seems to have regressed because also damaged by his body. Atlante offers “too many” negative players in defense: Young, Huerter, Bogdanovic, Gallinari. In an era where title contenders rely primarily on good defense, the Hawks’ 16th defense is on the street. On the first game of the series, Nate McMillan (not the most inspired of course) did not manage to find any solution against Miami’s long distance barrage, which offers many options at 3pts.
Live by attack?
The Heat’s historic zone defense system naturally leaves areas of the field more exploitable than others. A ban on driving in the snowshoe and on the drive, which involves leaving the spotlight to the opponent at 3pts. He still has to shoot. Atlanta takes few shots, and puts few (17th in frequency, 22nd in success), and relies mainly on the offensive exploits of Trae Young. If he comes out of his best season in career (28 points, 9.7 assists and 38% at 3 points), he was devoured by the defense of the Heat embodied by Butler and Lowry, who took turns constantly to force difficult shots and the turnovers. Atlanta offers a very old-fashioned five with only two running backs, two players not shooters. In an area where versatility is key, it seems complicated, if not impossible, to ask Hawks players to do things they can’t.
Trae Young may not be as well defended throughout the series, but his team desperately needs him to hope to survive. His meager 8 points with in particular a 0/7 at 3 pts, and his 6 turnovers sealing the game at halftime. Without Capela to be a threat to the alley oop, and with a not very leaping Collins, add to that a Bam who is happy to devote himself only to obscure tasks, and you have a point guard who can only take long range shots, or rely on floaters.
The big focus for the Hawks, however, remains their attack from the circle, where they managed to generate 13 free throws. Atlanta has every interest in adapting its game plan during the match, if, like Sunday evening, the shots do not come in. Is it risky to attack an Adebayo Tucker racquet? Just as much as trying to compose with a Lowry/Butler duo. The Heat on the whole of the season is in the bottom three teams that concede the most free throws, and Atlanta causes a lot of fouls by being the 6th team in the free throw rate. The only hope seems to come from there.
A complete Heat
It goes without saying that for 2 years, the NBA has been chasing the health of its players between injuries and Covid-19.
Finally leave for the medical staff
If you follow the Heat and know its recent history, you know that the Heat’s infirmary seems to be the best hotel in Florida as it is often full. The Heat have raced all season to recover fit players, relying on Spoelstra’s coaching and his ability to reveal his team’s full potential. From Max Strus to Gabe Vincent to the revelation that is Omar Yurtseven, the Heat hunkered down and continued to shape their game, with the players present to finish in a comfortable second place. This penalized his end of the season, because once the infirmary was emptied, it was necessary to resume the initial game plan. This resulted in a series of frustrating but logical defeats (while giving work to some media, but that’s another debate…).
Arrived in play offsthe Heat has all its players and offers a bench of role players very complementary, which offer a style of play different from the major five. This was particularly felt against the Hawks, where the major five did not have to stay on the field for long thanks to the efforts of the substitutes, thanks to the good defense of Vincent, Strus allowing to cover the defensive largesse of Tyler Hero in particular. Of course, when the adversity increases (if the Hawks manage to find the keys to survival), the playing time from the bench will decrease.
Big Face Coffin
The alpha of this workforce that is Jimmy Butler is the key to the series against Atlanta, as his very good defense and his ability to drive are fundamental in the Heat’s game system. In Game 1, he didn’t have to force his game, focusing on his aggressive defense on Trae Young, punching the Hawks’ diminished racquet, and barking incessantly. If his shoot is still not reliable at long distance, he easily compensates with his aggressiveness and his athletic abilities which notably allow Miami to cause a lot of free throws (5th team in the FT Rate). Above all, he knows very well how to find his shooters in the corners, or via system. Again, Atlanta is stuck. Bringing out the insides with each attack is like exposing yourself to alley oops. Helping too much is releasing shooters at high volume, like Duncan Robinson who blasted the Georgia team in the first game (8/9 at 3pts). Again, the entire Atlanta defense seems to rest on Deandre Hunter’s shoulders.
Butler is the player who benefits the most from the complementary contribution of Lowry and Herro. With on one side a floor general very good passer, shooter and defender, and on the other a Tyler Herro excellent in his role as a blaster off the bench. The Heat diffuse responsibility, allowing Butler to focus on what he does best. So don’t be surprised if Jimmy Bucket isn’t the first option on the whole series, he should however be the logical best defender.
The teacher and the student
Spoelstra and McMillan usually bump into each other in April, but it rarely ends the way Nate would like. Spoelstra has been one of the best coaches in the league for many years. His ability to adapt his game plans from one game to another, to empower his players at the right time and to overthrow endgames, make him one of the Heat’s best assets. Even if his team inflicted a real correction on the Hawks, it stems above all from an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent. He knew how to place the good role players face Young to rest Butler and Lowry, involve Dewayne Dedmon and Adebayo on offense to chastise the opposing paint, while preventing the Hawks from coming back to score.
McMillan is historically not a coach who adapts his game plan in the middle of a match. He prepares his opponents and his players well, but reacts little when the tide of the match is reversed. Why worry when you have one of the best point guards in the league? It is, however, one of the key factors in the series for a Hawks team which must do what it cannot do, and rely on players who are sometimes not very responsible in order to hope to survive. We always come back to the same point: Atlanta cannot hope to last long if it has to rely on its Young/Collins/Capela trio at 100% to win. McMillan must empower in attack the very good players who are Huerter, Bogdanovic, as he was able to involve Gallinari in the first game.
Not to adapt is to send Trae Young into the trench and be surprised that his team is out of address. The one who must raise his level of play is more the coach than the players on the Atlanta side.
What to expect in this series?
It seems complicated to hope for better than a series that ends in 5 games, as the gap is logical and cruel between a team at the top of its conference and another which, play in should not have accessed play offs. Nevertheless, the run Atlanta’s season finale is a logical source of hope for Trae Young and his squad. Atlanta shouldn’t shoot as badly as they did in their first game, but will that be enough to hope not to be sweepé ? Hard to say. It will once again depend on Collins and Capela returning to form, McMillan’s ability to adapt, and Young’s success.
The Heat arrived with certainties, the Hawks with doubts, and they seem unwilling to correct the target now. Of course in the NBA nothing is written in advance, but there are too many random factors on the side of Atlanta. Miami can afford over one or more games to lower the tone in defense, to be less effective in attack or even to be less concerned by the issue. Atlanta must exceed its ceiling to hope to resist. We logically expect a Trae Young game but will that be enough?
Match-up
Miami Heat : 95%
Atlanta Hawks : 5%