Prospects for Military Intervention in Niger: Updates and Analysis

2023-08-18 22:20:00

Will there be a military intervention to try to dislodge the putschists in Niger? The first gossip of the meeting in Accra (Ghana) of the chiefs of staff of the West African armies which takes place from Thursday August 17 to today Friday, focused only on the modalities of a possible armed intervention. in Niger.

No warmongering decision has been taken and Nigeria’s Chief of Staff, General Christopher Gwabin Musa, is told that the objective “is not simply to react to events, but to proactively chart a path that leads to peace and supports stability”. Occasional words. This Thursday, therefore, as a first step, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) ordered the deployment of its “standby force”, to restore “constitutional order” after the coup. in Niger against President Mohamed Bazoum.

But for all that, this leitmotif is not up to its interpretation on the ground as there are so many differences, on the Continent (African Union) and even more. Indeed, the UN does not see this at all with a good eye and still does not agree to give approval, its concern being other. Moreover, the cost and financing of a war, the “nerve” necessary to carry it out, hardly lend themselves to incitement in these times of economic crisis and all the countries which claim to be concerned do not really have the means. . Moreover, the restoration of “constitutional” order in Niger will not be achieved in a lightning war, hence, in which case, serious risks of getting bogged down.

This meeting comes two days after at least 17 Nigerien soldiers were killed and 20 others injured in an attack by jihadists in southwestern Niger near the Burkina Faso border. In a press release released on Tuesday, ECOWAS mentioned it: “various attacks perpetrated by armed groups having caused the death of several Nigerien soldiers”, without specifying the dates of these. The organization strongly condemns these attacks and urges the putschists in Niamey to focus instead on restoring constitutional order and the country’s security, which has been “increasingly weakened since the coup”.

That said, if the option of a military intervention remains quite possible, ECOWAS still seems to favor dialogue and diplomacy to try to convince the putschists. Calls for a peaceful settlement of the crisis have also multiplied in recent days. In particular those of the African Union (AU) as well as other Western partners such as the United States. The latter also announced on Wednesday that a new ambassador, Kathleen FitzGibbon, would take up her duties in Niamey. Also, in the face of so many signals and calls, it is clear that the military option tends to move away, to the chagrin of a majority of ECOWAS countries, which are for intervention. Must also say that this is the fourth crisis that passes under the nose under the nose of Cédéao, whether it likes it or not.

This political crisis in Niger, combined with this “enthusiastic deployment” of ECOWAS to try to resolve it by all means, above all aggravates the food insecurity of Nigerien citizens. The United Nations humanitarian agency, Ocha, pointed out even before the coup d’etat that the country had more than three million people in a situation of acute food insecurity and more than seven million people, currently in a situation of moderate food insecurity. The latter should see their situation worsen.

The World Food Program (WFP), for its part, sounded the alarm last Wednesday against regional sanctions imposed by ECOWAS and border closures. They affect Niger’s supply of vital foodstuffs and medical supplies, the UN organization said.

France, the former main colonial power concerned in this region and in this country, one of the poorest in the world, has become by force of circumstances one of the privileged targets of the soldiers of the Niamey regime, which accuses it of influencing ECOWAS decisions. For the moment Macron has not yet said a word. Victim not without reason in the African continent, of an anti-Western feeling like never before. France through which everything happened has chosen to abstain. Long upwind against any rebel uniform in Africa and even the world, she chose to lay low this time, even if it is she who holds the strings of ECOWAS.

1692432815
#Accra #desired #military #option #materialize

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.