European Union buyers spent EUR 8,7 billion on Russian Arctic liquefied natural gas in the first ten months of 2026.
Ports across the bloc received 12,89 millions of tonnes of liquefied natural gas from the Yamal project between January and October, representing a 6,3% increase compared to the previous year, according to data from the environmental organization Urgewald. European destinations accounted for 81% of the project’s global shipments during the ten-month period.
The spending total surpassed the estimated expenditure for the entire year of 2025 by 21%, as reported by Montel News. Restrictions targeting former short-term contracts have applied since April 25, 2026.
Despite the approaching cutoff, monthly purchases climbed due to higher commodity prices. October deliveries dropped 11% in volume compared to September, yet their estimated value rose 2,6% to 839 million euros as the European benchmark gas price reached 86,79 EUR/MWh, according to euronews. This increase stemmed from a peak in the European benchmark gas price, which more than doubled from its level prior to the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States.
France with 5,37 millions of tonnes, Spain with 2,91 millions of tonnes, the Netherlands with 1,32 million of tonnes, and Portugal with 0,22 million of tonnes also counted among the recipients of Russian Arctic LNG in October. The terminal in Dunkerque and Montoir-de-Bretagne in France, the terminal in Bilbao, Spain, and the terminal in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, welcomed the remaining three cargoes.
The location of the Yamal facility makes European ports vital for its current export model. Specialized Arc7 ice-class carriers navigate frozen waters to reach nearby European terminals quickly before returning to the Arctic site, according to L’Energeek.
An analysis by the Centre for High North Logistics on April 2, 2026, examined the potential consequences of this redirection, noting that in 2025 Yamal had carried out about 270 shipments, with 241 insured by fourteen Arc7 ice-class carriers.
Redirecting shipments to Asian markets after the 2027 ban takes effect will significantly extend voyage times. Trips to Asia require 50 to 80 days depending on the route, compared to 17 to 20 days for deliveries to Europe, creating potential vessel shortages and higher transportation expenses for exporters. Although Asia—specifically Taiwan, South Korea, and China—absorbed approximately 18,6 percent of Yamal’s production, it remains uncertain whether these markets can entirely replace European demand.
Vladimir Poutine commented on attempts to isolate Russia from the global gas market on October 27 using the popular proverb: “Do not dig a pit for others, you might fall into it yourself.” Presiding over an economic forum of gas-exporting countries, the Russian leader suggested a resumption of gas deliveries to Europe, which the Russian magazine Monocle analyzed as a move that “disguises a strict pragmatism: it is less about saving Europe than [ensuring] the future of Russian gas exports.” Vladimir Poutine thus chose “the ideal moment” to propose resuming gas deliveries to the European Union, the publication noted.
Market participants are preparing for the regulatory changes while managing current procurement. TotalEnergies holds a 20% stake in Yamal LNG. Patrick Pouyanné discussed a volume of about three million tonnes per year on October 29, according to Interfax, examining marketing possibilities outside the European Union after January 1, 2027, subject to available outlets and applicable sanctions, as noted by Economie Matin.
Sebastian Rötters, sanctions campaign manager at Urgewald, urged EU countries to “hold the line” and declared: With only 50 days to go until the January ban, Europe must hold strong. No backing down, no new exemptions and no safety net for this trade. After nearly five years of war, governments must finally pull the plug on the Russian LNG business.
