Opinion polls, especially during an election period, provide activists of all stripes with inexhaustible material for commentary and discussion. They are readily quoted when they are flattering for one’s camp, just as they are just as readily shouted down when they show a decline in one’s champion. Although opinion polls have many limits, they are nonetheless scrutinized by the political class and by their supporters.
In 2022, many of Eric Zemmour’s supporters show their skepticism about their candidate’s scores. After an autumn when the far-right polemicist had created a surprise and had risen to 17% of voting intentions, winter marked his gradual erosion in most surveys, where he is now at the around 13%, behind the candidate Les Républicains (LR), Valérie Pécresse, and that of the National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen. Scores which, in the eyes of the militants, are contradictory with the fervor felt during the meetings of their candidate.
But since January, a new survey has found favor in their eyes, even becoming a reference for the Zemmour camp: that of the Qotmii smartphone application, which activists consider to be the only “real survey not rigged” who wouldn’t have “never cheated” and would have predicted, in the United States, the victory of Donald Trump in 2016. In this application using “artificial intelligence”, Eric Zemmour often prances in the lead with an “electoral potential” – and not voting intentions, the distinction is important – around 19%, ahead of the outgoing head of state, Emmanuel Macron, at 18%. It does not take more for the supporters of the polemicist to oppose this “poll” to the others, who place Mr. Macron much higher, around 25%, when their champion has stagnated for a few weeks between 12% and 14%.
The direct successor to Filteris
This argument may remind the most political enthusiasts of something: it strongly resembles that used by supporters of François Fillon, in 2017, about another tool, which was called Filteris. He too, thanks to “artificial intelligence”, gave the right-wing candidate, entangled in the scandal around the fictitious job of his wife, much higher than the classic polls. “The Filteris analysis demonstrates François Fillon’s resistance to the French”, welcomed the deputy LR, Valérie Boyer, on Twitter, March 2, 2017. “We have polls [sic] which are made with what is called big data and which place François Fillon in number 2″, added Senator Bruno Retailleau.
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