The world’s largest hedge fund “Bridgewater” (Bridgewater) founder Ray Dalio (Ray Dalio) warned today at the China Development Forum in Beijing that the world is on the verge of danger, facing huge debt monetization, wealth and value gaps. Three “seismic” upheavals: huge internal conflicts and international power conflicts.
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Depend onThe 2023 Annual Meeting of the China Development High-Level Forum hosted by the Development Research Center of the State Council of China was held in Beijing from 25 to 27. According to Chinese media Peng Pai NewsreportRay Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund “Bridgewater” (Bridgewater), said at the forum today that the world is on the “edge of danger” and may face three seismic changes.
These three drastic changes, first, are the monetization of huge debts, that is, the central banks of various countries buy these debts by printing money and issuing currencies; second, the huge internal conflicts caused by the gap in wealth and values; third, the international powers conflict. According to Ray Dalio, all three factors are now occurring to the greatest extent since 1930-1945:
If it were going to happen, we might witness something we haven’t seen in our lifetimes, but there have been many times in history that have changed domestic and world order, these three forces started years ago, have reached a crisis point and are driving All occasions occur.
Ray Dalio mentioned that historical development will have its own evolution law, real per capita income, average life expectancy, nutrition level and many other indicators. In the long run, due to the improvement of productivity, especially the improvement of technology, the situation will be greatly improved.In the evolution process of this upward trend, there are huge periodic fluctuations, which are composed of short periods and interact with each other to form a large cycle with good and bad.
In the process of accumulating many short cycles to form a large long cycle, when the debt ratio rises and the debt becomes too large to sustain, it will lead to debt write-down and monetization of huge debts. At the same time, with the financial and economic cycle, There are also political cycles within countries, and geopolitical cycles between countries, and history shows that when these three forces stack together, they lead to periods of turbulent transition, often resulting in huge upheavals in domestic and world order.
A Great Debt Cycle Has Formed
Ray Dalio pointed out that since the establishment of the new world order, the currency order, and the world order of the United States and the US dollar in 1945, it has experienced 12.5 short cycles so far, and has accumulated to this day to form a large debt cycle. The current debt accounts for GDP The proportion is already quite high, and the Federal Reserve and other central banks began to tighten monetary policy to deal with inflation, causing cracks in the market and weakening of the economy.
Now that the Russo-Ukraine war continues to burn, and the world situation is turbulent,Ray Dalio He believes that the world has also entered a major international geopolitical cycle. Therefore, he hopes that the world will be full of wisdom, restraint and understanding, and continue to maintain peace and prosperity.
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