Russians will launch an offensive in June, ISW warns (VIDEO)

Ukraine’s ability to regain all its lands in the long term depends on decisions in the West, in the Kremlin and Kyiv.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write about this in a recent review. They noted that Western media reports that US officials have resumed discussions on the idea of ​​a “border freeze,” but the extreme US aid package may not be enough for Ukraine to return all of its territory. Therefore, discussion of the possible end states of the war is very premature.

U.S. military aid is on its way to Ukraine, but it will take several weeks for it to reach frontline units and have a tangible impact on the battlefield. Analysts believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will first have to use US assistance to stabilize the front line and stop the enemy’s advance in the Avdeevsky direction, especially in the Chasovoy Yar area.

In addition, analysts noted that the scale of the proposed Russian offensive operation in the summer, which is likely to begin in June, also remains unclear. Experts have suggested that Russian military commanders may be actively assessing and revising plans for future offensives to account for a clash with better-equipped Ukrainian forces.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces will need to fend off this Russian offensive to prevent them from making significant operational progress during the summer months before they can challenge the initiative with a counteroffensive later in 2024 or 2025.

According to ISW analysts, full and consistent assistance from Western partners will be crucial for future counter-offensive actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “The United States and the West will need to respond as Ukrainian military commanders determine the scope and focus of such operations and communicate Ukrainian needs to Western partners in the weeks and months ahead of future counteroffensive operations,” the analysts noted.

Meanwhile, deputy commander of the Third Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Maxim Zhorin, said that the enemy is doing a lot to convince everyone of the infinity of its resources and tolerance for its own losses. “There really are a lot of resources, including human resources, that’s why they treat their fighters this way. And also because of the level of their moral development and flawed mentality,” he wrote.