Republican efforts to maintain control of the House of Representatives through mid-decade redistricting have backfired, resulting in a “dummymander” where aggressive map-drawing efforts ultimately benefited the other party. Democrats won control of the House on Tuesday, with CBS News estimating they could end up with between 251 and 268 seats.
The political gamble was a historic reach. Following an order from President Trump to net up to five seats for the GOP in Texas, Republican lawmakers in states like Texas and Ohio aggressively redrew district lines mid-decade—a previously rare practice. Instead of maintaining control, the GOP was on track to lose all of the districts it tried to gerrymander, a situation in which a party tries to gerrymander but ends up benefiting the other party.
How Texas and Ohio Became Case Studies in Strategy Failure
Texas was a clear example of this miscalculation. Texas Republicans went into Election Day controlling 24 seats and sought to emphasize President Trump’s gains in South Texas to win five more seats. As of Wednesday, Republicans had won 24 seats and Democrats had won 14 seats, making Texas a dummymander.
The situation in Ohio followed a similar trajectory. A commission comprised mainly of Republicans hand-picked by GOP lawmakers redrew the map, while Republicans heavily targeted the districts of longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Rep. Greg Landsman. Both incumbents won Tuesday night. Seven Democrats won, and CBS News estimates another district is likely Democratic, while Republicans have won only seven districts, making Ohio a dummymander.
The Legal and Political Fallout in North Carolina and Alabama
In North Carolina, Republican lawmakers used a veto-proof majority in the statehouse to push through a new map that attempted to oust Democratic Rep. Don Davis. As of Wednesday, four Democrats had won and CBS News estimated that another five were likely Democratic. Republicans had not yet won any races, with CBS News estimating one race was likely Republican and another four were toss-ups. If Democrats ultimately win any of the undecided races, North Carolina will be a dummymander.
Alabama’s redistricting efforts followed the same Supreme Court decision. Alabama Republicans sought to eliminate the state’s two majority-Black districts, both represented by Democrats. Both incumbents won reelection on Tuesday, so Republicans did not net any more than the five they already controlled, making Alabama a dummymander.
Why Mid-Decade Redistricting Proved a Liability
In Missouri, the Supreme Court three times blocked the state from using a new GOP-favorable map, leaving the 2022 congressional districts in place for Tuesday’s election. Heading into Election Day, Republicans controlled six districts while Democrats held two. Democrats flipped another district, giving them three seats to the Republicans’ five. Meanwhile, in Indiana, Mr. Trump pushed lawmakers to pass a map that would edge out the state’s two Democratic lawmakers and make it a 9-0 Republican delegation. Using the same boundaries as the last two cycles, Democrats held onto their two seats and flipped a third, making the state’s representation 6-3.
In Tennessee, lawmakers redrew their map after the Supreme Court decision to target the lone Democratic district in Nashville. In Florida, led by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, GOP lawmakers redrew the map to net up to four more seats for their party. Heading into Election Day, Republicans controlled 20 seats and Democrats controlled eight. As of Wednesday, Republicans had won 16 seats, Democrats had won seven, and five districts were estimated by CBS News as toss-ups.
The national scope of this shift is summarized by the changing composition of the House. Democrats won control on Tuesday, with CBS News estimating 251 to 268 House seats. In Maryland, Democratic Gov. Wes Moore and other Democratic lawmakers championed a ballot initiative to remove restraints on redistricting; Question 3 passed by 20 points on Tuesday, so Democrats are likely to redraw their map now to edge out their sole GOP representative.
