2024-01-18 17:26:59
Residential construction is expected to increase slightly in the next two years, but it will not be enough to regain affordability and meet demand.
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This was revealed by the Association of Construction and Housing Professionals of Quebec (APCHQ) in a press release published Thursday.
“After experiencing, in 2023, the second most pronounced drop in housing starts since CMHC has been collecting this data, the weak anticipated recovery in residential construction in 2024-2025 will be clearly insufficient to meet the increase in demand” , underlined Paul Cardinal, director of the Economic Service at the APCHQ.
Thus, for the rental and resale markets to become affordable again, construction starts would need to be tripled until 2030, warned the APCHQ.
Increase in construction
The number of residential constructions is expected to increase by 13% in 2024 and 14% in 2025, which represents 44,000 new constructions in 2024 and 50,000 in 2025, the association calculated.
This slight increase should be caused by the normalization of interest rates.
Unsurprisingly, the majority of construction starts will concern rental housing, and these should represent seven out of ten new homes in urban centers.
The increase in construction of single-family homes and condominiums will be minimal.
Despite this increase, demand will remain too strong to be filled, in particular because of a record arrival of non-permanent residents and the unaffordability of properties for purchase, specified the APCHQ.
Building affordable rental housing will also be difficult given continued high construction costs, public taxes and financing conditions.
Forecast by region
In 2024, however, certain regions of the province will not experience an increase, however slight it may be, underlined the APCHQ report.
This is the case for the metropolitan regions of Quebec (-7%), Gatineau (-5%) and Saguenay (-18%), which could observe a decline in housing starts.
Conversely, the Trois-Rivières region could record the largest increase in the number of residential constructions in 2024.
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