The first electoral poll carried out after Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández entered the second presidential round, which will take place on June 19, reveals that there is a technical tie between the two candidates.
But for the first time in the entire campaign, the aspirant of the Historical Pact does not appear ahead in the electoral preferences of Colombians: thus, of the 1,200 citizens surveyed by the National Consulting Center for the CM& Newscast, 41% said that they will vote for Hernández, while 39% affirmed that they will vote for Gustavo Petro.
As the margin of error of the sample is 2.8% (with 95% confidence), the two points of difference are in the technical tie range.
In the last survey of the CNC, which was published by the newspaper Week on May 19, there was also a technical tie in the second round between Petro and Hernández, both with 40.5% in voting intention. Now, in the measurement made after the first round, the technical tie remains, but Hernández is up 0.5% and the candidate for the Historical Pact is down 1.5%.
But in any case, what is reflected in the responses of those surveyed by the CNC is the rise of the campaign of the former mayor of Bucaramanga, who had already been marking all the polls in the last month but whose confirmation was the great electoral coup last Sunday. , when Rodolfo managed to snatch Fico Gutiérrez’s ticket for the second round.
The survey consulted 1,200 Colombians from 43 municipalities in the country by telephone between May 30 and 31. And another of the most revealing data is the high percentage of citizens who declare themselves not aligned with either of the two campaigns: 14% of those consulted said they would not vote for either, and they represent a range of potential voters that both Petro like Hernández, they will seek to convince in the less than three weeks that remain for the final vote.
5% of those surveyed responded that they would vote blank.
By region, Petro would prevail in Bogotá by 49% compared to 39% of the «Engineer». The capital of the country, according to the survey by the National Consulting Center, would be the area where there is a greater number of votes already defined.
In Antioquia and the coffee zone, which was the only one where Fico Gutiérrez prevailed last Sunday, 54% of those consulted said they would support Rodolfo Hernández. The intention to vote for Petro is less than half that of his opponent, with 26%. In that area, 14% of those surveyed said they would not vote for any.
In the Caribbean region, Petro reports 48% voting intention compared to 33% for Hernández. There, 13 out of 100 would not vote for any.
As happened on May 29 in the first round, the center-east of Colombia would vote for Hernández in majority. In this region (Bogotá is not included) the former mayor of Bucaramanga would achieve 51% of the votes, compared to 23% for Petro. 20% said they would not vote for any. In the central-south region, Hernández would achieve 46% compared to 34% for Petro.
And in the Pacific region, 57% would lean towards Gustavo Petro’s candidacy, far from Hernández’s 23%. In that area, whose natural capital is Cali, 14 out of every 100 Colombians surveyed said they would not vote for any of them.
By gender, 42% of men and 41% of women surveyed said they would vote for Rodolfo Hernández. In the case of Petro, 43% of the men and 36% of the women who consulted the CNC would support him.
The survey also shows that Rodolfo has more support in the upper and lower strata: 52 and 40%, respectively, compared to 40 and 39% for Petro. The candidate of the Pact is supported by 41% of those consulted from the middle class, compared to 39% of Hernández.
Petro has more support among voters aged 18 to 40, while Rodolfo is mostly supported by voters aged 40 and over.