The decline in the price of TV panels has continued to converge in recent months. Among them, the 32-inch has almost stopped falling and stabilized last month. However, due to the interference of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, which affected the terminal demand, it broke the original expectation that it could be flat to a small increase. Turning to a continuous decline, the rebound in TV panel prices this season is sure to be hopeless.
However, looking forward to the second quarter, Qiu Yubin, vice president of TrendForce’s research department, believes that two positive factors can be observed, including China’s 618 business opportunities and brand factories stocking up for the year-end shopping festival.
According to the quotations of WitsView, a subsidiary of TrendForce, a research organization in early March, the prices of 32-, 43-, and 55-inch TV panels were all the same as at the end of last month, and the decline of 65-inch TV panels also converged to US$2. The quotations of IT panels such as laptops and monitors continued to rise. In the first half of the year, the decline was more than 1%, and the worst was 3%.
Considering logistics freight and observing price trends, the market generally believes that small and medium-sized TV panels are expected to stabilize and rebound before the end of this quarter. However, the outbreak of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has once again affected the confidence of the terminal consumer market.
Qiu Yubin pointed out that the demand for 32-inch small-size TVs remained healthy in early March. It was expected to support price stability or even a slight recovery. However, due to the impact of the war, the trend of panel prices turned conservative, and the rise in crude oil prices caused inflation. It also crowds out demand for consumer products.
According to statistics, the annual TV demand in the former Soviet Union including Russia and Ukraine is about 8-9 million units, although it only accounts for about 4% of the world, but more than 60% are products under 50 inches. Therefore, the outbreak of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, The demand for small and medium-sized products bears the brunt.
The market is concerned about when panel prices are expected to stop falling. According to Qiu Yubin’s analysis, there are two positive factors to observe in the second quarter. The first is the upcoming 618 shopping festival in China. Considering that China’s domestic demand market has been quiet for a while and panel prices have fallen, it is expected that some Brand factories will take advantage of the shopping festival to carry out promotional activities and pull goods, and Chinese panel factories have won more than half of the global market share, and there are limited problems such as restricted freight congestion and rising freight.
In addition, considering that the current problem of freight congestion in ports continues and the average delivery time is many times longer than in the past, Qiu Yubin believes that brand factories will consider the freight schedule and will prepare for the peak sales season such as Black Friday at the end of the year at the end of the second quarter at the earliest. It will help drive the recovery of overall demand.