Until recently, the 75-year-old sociologist was the long-time head of Russia’s only polling institute independent of the state. He now works as a research director at Levada. During the conversation in his Moscow office in the immediate vicinity of the Kremlin, he chooses his words carefully: “The bare numbers, namely that two-thirds of Russians support Putin’s Ukraine course, which here hypocritically has to be called ‘special operation’, while only around a quarter support it vehemently rejects say little on their own.”
Because this attitude depends above all on the sources of information that the respondents use. The opponents of the war in Ukraine would get an idea of the events in social networks and various, mainly independent news sources on the Internet. “These people are in a state of shock, shame and depression,” says Gudkow.
Just a source of information
Quite unlike the two-thirds of Russians who not only support the “military operation” in Ukraine, but would even feel proud of their country. “It is primarily those sections of the population that get their information from the state-controlled television channels. These are mainly older people, professional groups dependent on the state and the population of the social periphery, i.e. in small towns and villages in the Russian provinces,” says the sociologist. Gudkov calls what they hear on state television “aggressive lying propaganda” that has existed for a long time and is being intensified by the recent strict censorship laws.
Propaganda with tradition
This propaganda has been manipulating public opinion in Russia for more than ten years. For example, the Maidan revolution in Kyiv in 2014 was portrayed as a US-led coup that flushed Nazis and fascists into the Ukrainian government, threatening the Russian-speaking population in the east and south of the country. For its part, Russia is portrayed as a savior, freeing its brother people from the yoke of the Kiev Nazi government. Therefore, the Russian military operation against the neighboring country is seen by many Russians as a fight for the “right cause”, according to Gudkov.
According to the sociologist, the term “Nazis” was not chosen by chance by Russian propaganda, because hardly any other historical event has shaped the collective memory as painfully as the Soviet Union’s victorious struggle and victory against Hitler’s Germany. “The propaganda on state television channels uses the language of the struggle against fascism from the Second World War. This destroys any compassion and sympathy that Russian society has for Ukrainians,” he says.
Propaganda works
A new law is in force in Russia that strictly censors news about the war. Long prison sentences are threatened. The Kremlin’s propaganda is clearly having an effect.
enemy image “West”
But not only the alleged “Nazis” in Ukraine have been portrayed as enemies by state-controlled media propaganda for years. The West is also portrayed as hostile, sneaky and a threat to Russia. This manipulation of public opinion has been going on for so many years that the enemy image “West” can be called up automatically in view of Russia’s current conflict with NATO, the USA and Europe, says Gudkov. This also explains why many Russians equate the conflict with Ukraine with “just” resistance against the hostile West – a West that wants to keep the great power Russia small, sickens and humiliates.
Trauma and unfulfilled desires
But why does this criticism of the West, which Putin himself has repeatedly leveled, resonate with the Russian population? Does the propaganda hit a sore spot in Russian society? The sociologist affirms: “The population still suffers from the trauma of the collapse of the Soviet Union and from a collective inferiority complex of a country that has not managed to carry out democratic reforms.”
Russians are painfully aware that their dream of living in a “normal” country has remained unfulfilled. For the Russians, the term “normal country” means nothing other than a country with democratic rules, social security and economic prosperity – in short, with a western standard of living.
“Russians don’t dream of China or any other Asian country, they dream of Europe or the United States. There is no other ideal idea of a desirable social order in the minds of the Russian population,” stresses Gudkov. This hitherto unfulfilled wish and the complex feelings associated with it would turn into a strongly anti-Western attitude, which would form the ideal basis for the enemy images of state propaganda.
“mood could change”
Nevertheless, the sociologist qualifies that the two-thirds of Russians who support Putin’s current course should not be labeled as supporters of the fighting against the neighboring country. On the one hand, the audience of the propaganda stations does not learn the truth about the events. On the other hand, the repressive political regime in Russia has long since turned many citizens into conformists who simply don’t want any problems with the state and for that reason alone support its policies.
The sociologist expects the mood in Russian society to change as soon as the next few months. If fighting in Ukraine were to continue and many Russian soldiers were killed, even President Putin’s most loyal supporters would change their minds. Added to this would be the effects of Western sanctions, which would lead to an economic catastrophe in Russia.
“When food runs out, prices skyrocket and unemployment rises, people will want to find out why and do something about it. But this thought process will be slowed down by censorship, police violence, fines and arrests,” says Gudkow.
“Unfortunately, dramatic events are imminent for Russia”
Anyone who speaks out against the “military operation” in Ukraine or even just calls for peace faces up to 15 years in prison under the new censorship laws. According to civil rights activists, more than 14,000 people have been arrested during protests in recent weeks. There is also a danger if such appeals for peace are not made during demonstrations, but only in a posting on social networks. Anyone who has signed petitions for peace on Facebook in the last few weeks is now getting a home visit from the police.
At the end of the conversation, Gudkov dares to take a look at Russia’s future. People’s living standards will fall drastically due to international isolation, and he fears that there will be social unrest in the longer term. Gudkow does not rule out a scenario similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It is not foreseeable when specifically the time will come and with what means the Russians then want to change the political system. Gudkov is already certain of one thing: “Unfortunately, dramatic events are imminent for Russia.”