The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army, since February 24, has not prevented the gas trade. On the contrary, the transportation of fuel through the Brotherhood gas pipeline (“fraternity”) has experienced increased activity in recent days. This long pipe goes from Russia to the countries of the European Union (EU), passing through Ukrainian soil. At the crossing point between the city of Uzhhorod (Ukraine) and Slovakia, for example, the volume of deliveries for the EU has more than doubled: 851 gigawatt hours (GWh) on February 28, against 372 GWh on February 23, according to data from the European association of gas transmission system operators Entsog.
The rise first responds to a market logic, according to several observers. It can be explained in particular by the fact that European companies continue to use their long-term contracts concluded over several years with the Russian company Gazprom. Above all, if these contracts guarantee prices lower than those, moreover, of the “spot” market, where gas is traded on a daily basis and continues to exceed 100 euros per megawatt hour. Six times more than a year ago.
On February 24, the “spot” price climbed to 135 euros, without however reaching the recent peaks of December 2021. At the start of the war, “the market anticipated that everything would suddenly cut off, then it calmed down, because the fundamentals of supply and demand are still there”, notes for the moment Nicolas Leclerc, founder of the broker Omnegy, evoking “still very volatile prices”.
A lack of anticipation
Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Po Paris, criticizes European companies for a lack of anticipation. According to him, they should have stocked up more in January, rather than having to compensate now for a previous under-investment. “In January, it seems that the utilities [entreprises de service public] did a calculation. » By underestimating “the risk of war and the problem of security of supply”.
The volumes and amounts of long-term contracts remain confidential. Contacted, the French group Engie (ex-GDF Suez) refrains from communicating on its only supplies. One thing is certain: unlike Germany, France does not have Russia as its main gas supplier (17% of its gross entries in 2020), but Norway (36%).
“European supplies are also filling Russia’s coffers”, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, researcher at the Global Center for Energy Policy, Columbia University
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