A few weeks ago, there was speculation about what Vladimir Putin’s intention would be when concentrating tens of thousands of soldiers on the border with Ukraine: whether an invasion, an incursion or a simple diplomatic bluff. Today it is already clear that the Russian president had a clear plan to enter the country from all sides, and by land, sea and air. What is his military strategy being? Is there a well-coordinated resistance from the Ukrainian Army? To know, THE NEWSPAPER OF SPAIN, a newspaper belonging to the same editorial group as this medium, has asked two experts: Guillermo Pulido Pulido, a military analyst at Revista Ejércitos and Political Room, and a doctoral student in strategic studies at the Pablo de Olavide University, as well as one of the few Spanish analysts who he saw the total invasion of the country coming; and Juan Rodríguez Garat, admiral of the Reserve Fleet and former director of the Institute of Naval History and Culture.
How would you describe the military strategy used by Russia in the invasion of Ukraine?
William Pulido: It is a mechanized offensive with simultaneous airstrikes, which is somewhat different from what military observers expected. A wave of air attacks was anticipated first, and then a ground incursion. They have probably opted for this strategy to prevent Ukraine from giving time to mobilize, taking advantage of Kiev’s low level of military preparedness. In this way, moreover, Moscow can quickly consummate the invasion, and thus prevent the West from reacting and reaching a fait accompli with a rapid occupation.
Juan Rodriguez Garat: The concept is not very different from the one used by Hitler in World War II with the invasion of Poland. The technology is different, but it’s still a Blitzkrieg in which the enormous mobility of the Russian media, far superior to the Ukrainian ones, is used to bypass all the defenses and reach the critical points of the nation.
What has surprised you most about the military movements of recent days?
William Pulido: What is most striking is that they are using the entire border with Belarus and with Russia up to Crimea. It is a simultaneous attack in all directions. It is not a military effort to take a city, Kharkiv or Kiev, but a Simultaneous ‘push’ in all directions. With this, again, they prevent a rapid response from Ukraine. The airborne attack on the airfield on the outskirts of Kiev has also been very striking. This is a traditional attack like those that were planned during the cold war, but were never carried out that way.
Juan Rodriguez Garat: What is most surprising is the decision itself. That this capacity was there was clear, to the point that, if one looks back, the US intelligence services had already announced the entire campaign. This time we cannot blame a failure of the intelligence services, but the perception of demilitarized society. Once the campaign is decided, the logical thing is to use that greater mobility to overcome the defenses and go to the objectives that Putin probably wants. One is the capital, to force negotiations, and the other is the front of the secessionist republics with which it hopes to stay.
What could be the next military steps?
William Pulido: Once they surround or take Kiev, we will probably see advances from Kharkov towards the Dnieper River [que atraviesa el país dividiéndolo prácticamente en dos, una zona oriental y otra occidental]. From there they could try to make a confluence with the troops arriving from Crimea, and then go to take parts of the interior of Ukraine, already west of the Dnieper River, with simultaneous advances towards Mariupol and Odessa.
Juan Rodriguez Garat: We have a relatively recent case in the Georgian war in 2008. Moscow did practically the same as now, attack all of Georgia and in five days reached an agreement with them to, in a negotiated way, end hostilities and impose their conditions. I don’t think Putin’s intention is to develop a long war because he doesn’t have an occupation army. With the 275,000 men he has there, he is not enough to occupy a country of 44 million inhabitants.
What can Russia expect militarily in the medium or long term?
William Pulido: I doubt that he wants to reach the border between Ukraine and Poland, but he wants to keep the entire Ukrainian coast from Odessa to Mariupol. Regarding staying in Ukraine, I do think that it is feasible with the force that they have deployed. There are those who deny it, because they apply the rule of 1 to 100, one soldier for every 100 inhabitants to control. Thus, Russia would need 450,000 soldiers for the country’s population of 45 million. I, however, I think he can conquer and control the country with the forces it has deployed. First, because there may be opposition, but not a generalized insurgency. Second, because Ukraine is not a mountainous place, like Afghanistan, and therefore it is not so easy to organize a partisan war, although there will perhaps be an urban guerrilla.
Juan Rodriguez Garat: Perhaps Putin’s intention is not to turn Russia into an empire but to become an emperor himself. What he aspires to is to remain an authoritarian and populist leader, which is what allows him to successfully challenge the world. Although for Russia it is a disaster from the economic point of view, because of the sanctions, and it does not gain anything by annexing the two secessionist republics in eastern Ukraine, it favors him.
Has Ukraine prepared well for this war?
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William Pulido: No. Zelenski had not mobilized the Army or called up, probably not to provoke Russia. The Ukrainian Army is resisting in some places, but it does not appear to be a large-scale or well-organized resistance, but rather a response by isolated forces. There are no counteroffensives or clear lines of defense. Most analysts did not believe the invasion; Zelensky, neither. Ukraine cannot beat the Russian Armybut resist and inflict significant damage on the enemy, so that the cost that Putin has to pay at home forces him to negotiate.
Juan Rodriguez Garat: No. Unfortunately, Ukraine, like the rest of the world in the 21st century and almost all societies, is demilitarized. Even the military see war as a thing of the past. Despite all the warnings, Ukraine is seriously ill-prepared. She has nothing to deal with Russian forces, at least in the short term. In the long term it is something else. It must be remembered that the United States entered Iraq easily but could not dominate it. On the other handRussian war material is modern but it is far from what the armed forces of Western countries have. That Putin knows. That is why he has not the slightest intention of getting involved with NATO.