2023-05-27 05:01:00
Russia seems to be multiplying military setbacks, to such an extent that the question of what it will become after the war is circulating more and more. Jérôme Pellistrandi, former general and director of the National Defense Reviewpresents several possible scenarios.
After more than 15 months of open conflict with Ukraine, Russia seems to be bogged down in this war, which it called “operation” at its beginnings, and whose real name it increasingly pronounces. Between recurring military setbacks and the birth of internal resistance movements, the failure – and fall – of Putin’s regime is becoming a conceivable horizon for some. What can we anticipate if such a situation arises? La Dépêche interviewed Jérôme Pellistrandi, former general and director of the National Defense Review.
La Dépêche du Midi: What will we see if Putin’s regime falls? Should we fear chaos?
Jerome Pellistrandi: Russia may be an authoritarian country, but it too has a constitution. If the constitutional process is respected, it would be Prime Minister Mikhail Michoustine, in place since 2020, who would take the reins. Putin keeps an inner circle loyal to his policies and no influential figure in Russia opposes the regime. A coup d’etat or an uprising of the people is almost impossible because it is not in the political culture of the country.
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Could Russia suffer a power controlled by the West, as during the fall of Nazi Germany?
Russian political power will not be frozen so as not to cause a black hole in the Kremlin. Moreover, Russia’s own regime will not change. Westerners, in particular France and the United States, agree to help Ukraine militarily but categorically refuse that it use it to strike Russia deeply. The allies want to beat Russia on the ground of Ukraine to push the Russians to negotiate.
Will Russia have to participate in a reparation plan requested by the Ukrainians?
Requesting a repair plan is possible depending on what might happen in the future. However, it should not be forgotten that even in the event of a weakening of Russia, the latter remains an influential member of the Security Council, of which Westerners are wary. The European Union will largely repair the damage caused by the war. This request is possible but is not yet on the table.
How can the Russian people react to a defeat?
The Russian population wants to find peace but does not want to be humiliated. In this case, we could witness a feeling of revenge, in the same way as what we saw with the Germans after the signing of the Treaty of Versailles in 1918, the start of the Second World War. Russia remains a large country with strategic depth, which can be easily reconstituted over forty years. It is therefore necessary to bring peace to the territory without rushing the political system of the country to avoid a new war.
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