Putin’s Salami-Slicing: How Russia is Systematically Testing the West’s Resolve
Every 73 days, on average, Russia engages in a provocative act against a NATO member or close ally. This isn’t accidental. It’s a calculated strategy – a geopolitical “salami-slicing” tactic – designed to probe Western defenses, exploit perceived weaknesses, and incrementally shift the security landscape in Moscow’s favor. The recent drone incursion into Polish airspace, the first such instance since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is the latest, and arguably most concerning, slice.
Understanding the Salami-Slicing Strategy
The term “salami-slicing” originates from Soviet-era tactics, referring to taking small, incremental steps that individually don’t warrant a major response, but cumulatively achieve significant strategic gains. As risk consultancy PRISM Strategic Intelligence’s Benjamin Godwin explains, Russia excels at “prodding, pushing, and testing the West.” This isn’t about a desire for immediate, large-scale conflict; it’s about exploiting the West’s reluctance to escalate, creating a new normal through a series of accepted provocations. Previous examples include airspace violations in Estonia, the creeping expansion into Georgia, and the 2014 annexation of Crimea – each a seemingly isolated incident that, in retrospect, formed part of a larger pattern.
Poland’s Airspace Breach: A Deliberate Escalation?
The incursion of 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace on Wednesday triggered a swift response, with Poland and NATO scrambling aircraft. While Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed no intention to attack, the incident was widely condemned as a deliberate provocation. The Kremlin’s subsequent silence, dismissing concerns as “nothing new,” only fueled suspicions. This isn’t simply about drones; it’s about testing the speed and effectiveness of NATO’s collective defense mechanisms, and gauging the alliance’s willingness to respond decisively. The fact that this occurred within a NATO member state significantly raises the stakes.
The Asymmetric Advantage for Russia
A key factor enabling Russia’s strategy is NATO’s understandable desire to avoid direct conflict. This creates an asymmetric effect, allowing Russia to escalate incrementally while knowing that a full-scale military response is unlikely. As Godwin points out, this manifests in incursions, electronic warfare, and other forms of gray-zone activity. The West’s hesitancy, born from legitimate fears of escalation, is precisely what Russia exploits. This dynamic is further complicated by internal divisions within the West, as evidenced by the contrasting responses from Poland and former U.S. President Trump, who suggested the incident might have been a “mistake.”
Beyond Ukraine: A Broader Test of Western Resolve
Analysts like Oksana Nechyporenko of the Atlantic Council argue that Putin views his conflict not just as a war against Ukraine, but against the West as a whole. Each “slice” – each provocative act – is a test of Western reaction. A weak response emboldens further aggression, while a strong response might deter future actions. This is why the current situation is so critical. The softer the reaction to the Polish airspace violation, the more likely Russia is to push boundaries further, potentially escalating tensions in the Baltic states or elsewhere. The Atlantic Council provides further analysis on Russia’s geopolitical strategies.
The Trump Factor and Transatlantic Tensions
The differing responses to the drone incursion highlight a growing transatlantic divide. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pointed rebuke of Trump’s suggestion that the incident was a “mistake” underscores the importance of a unified Western front. Trump’s previous calls for tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, while aimed at cutting off Putin’s revenue streams, also reveal a willingness to challenge established alliances and pursue a more transactional foreign policy. This unpredictability adds another layer of complexity to the situation, potentially encouraging Russia to exploit perceived weaknesses.
What’s Next? Anticipating Future Escalation
The “salami-slicing” tactic isn’t likely to cease. Instead, we can expect a continuation of incremental provocations, potentially including increased cyberattacks, further airspace violations, and intensified disinformation campaigns. The next escalation could involve a more direct challenge to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense commitment, perhaps through a more significant incursion into a member state’s territory. NATO needs to move beyond simply reacting to these incidents and adopt a more proactive and robust defensive posture, including deploying more advanced assets to its eastern flank and developing a clearer strategy for responding to gray-zone tactics.
The future of European security hinges on the West’s ability to recognize and counter Russia’s systematic strategy of incremental escalation. Ignoring these “slices” won’t make them disappear; it will only embolden Putin and pave the way for a more dangerous and unstable future. What steps do you believe NATO should take to effectively deter further Russian provocations? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
