LMorocco is facing an unprecedented situation. It is strongly impacted by a severe drought which reduced its cereal harvests to only 32 million quintals, far from the forecasts counting on 70 million quintals. A huge shortfall that will have to be filled by imports. In a normal year, the country provides 55% of its needs through local production. But for the 2022/2023 season, it will be forced to import more than 7.5 million tonnes, all cereals combined.
Under pressure, the international food market is severely disrupted, accentuated by the war in Ukraine. The Kingdom is already penalized by this situation. According to the latest statistics from the Foreign Exchange Office, the import bill for cereals and soybean oils reached, at the end of May 2022, 15.8 billion DH against 10.7 billion DH during the same period of last year, a jump of almost 48%.
This is a record never recorded before. Everything suggests that this restrictive situation should continue as long as geostrategic tensions persist. The government is procrastinating and says it is monitoring the situation very closely. “Through its agricultural strategy and its agricultural trade policy which advocates the diversification of suppliers and customers, Morocco is better equipped to deal with this situation,” said Mohamed Sadiki, Minister of Agriculture, Maritime Fisheries, Rural Development and Water and Forests. Professionals in the sector, in particular cereal and oilseed importers, did not hide their concerns, citing the lack of visibility.
The next few months will be very difficult due to the need for a large quantity of wheat and also animal feed. “We are monitoring the situation very closely. Importers have taken all the necessary steps to conclude contracts under good conditions and build up a stock in order to meet the needs of their customers, ”explains to the National Federation of Cereals and Legumes Traders (FNCL) .
It should be remembered that the Moroccan consumes an average of 200 kg of wheat per year, three times more than the world average. As in the other countries of the Maghreb, this cereal, through bread in particular, is a basic element in the diet. Requirements are also very high for barley and soybeans, which are major components for livestock feed.
Diversification of sources of supply
Morocco imports wheat from about fifteen countries. Russia and Ukraine account for only a 15% share. In recent years, the Kingdom has opted more and more for South America, in particular Argentina and Brazil, which have more than 40% market share. Previously, Europe and North America had the lion’s share with a share of more than 60%. Regarding Russia and Ukraine, it must be said that they are major producers of cereals and oilseeds and major partners of Morocco in the agricultural field. Morocco imports 1.3 billion DH from Russia, mainly common wheat (3.3 million quintals on average for a value of 712 million DH), animal feed (beet pulp for nearly 380 million DH) and oilseeds, mainly crude sunflower oil and soya for 98 million DH. From Ukraine, Morocco imports almost 3.5 billion DH of agricultural products, mainly cereals (12 million quintals of common wheat, corn and barley). Sunflower meal represents 17% of imports from this country, or 587 million DH.