Saudi Offensive: Oil Prices Plunge as Saudis Slash Prices - What It Means for the Global Economy

2024-01-08 21:46:00
Closing price: Oil prices fell on Monday, driven by the offensive by Saudi Arabia, which brutally lowered its prices to reposition itself in the face of competition, in a market without certainty. The price of a barrel of Brent BRENT Brent, or North Sea crude, is a variation of crude oil serving as a benchmark in Europe, listed on the InterContinentalExchange (ICE), a stock exchange specializing in energy trading. It became the first international standard for setting oil prices. from the North Sea for delivery in March closed down 3.34%, at $76.12.

As for the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also called Texas Light Sweet, is a variation of crude oil that serves as a standard in setting the price of crude and as a raw material for oil futures contracts with the Nymex (New York Mercantile Exchange). ), the stock exchange specializing in energy.) American, with expiry in February, it fell by 4.11%, to 70.77 dollars.

???????? According to a document communicated to AFP by Aramco, the Saudi national company plans to reduce its prices by two dollars per barrel in February for its Asian customers.

The proposed rate is now only $1.5 per barrel higher than that of Dubai, the benchmark for the Asian market, the smallest difference since November 2021.

Susannah Streeter, of Hargreaves Lansdown, said it was a sign that “Saudi Arabia is seeing demand slowing”.

“This looks like a warning shot, probably aimed at other producers, whether Russia, the United States, but also those who refused production cuts (during the last meeting of the Organization of Exporting Countries oil) or who do not keep their reduction commitments”, commented Robert Yawger, of Mizuho.

Until now, the Kingdom had demonstrated flawless discipline, contracting its production by around two million barrels per day since the fall of 2022 to support prices, when others balked.

“The Saudis are tired of doing all the work,” according to Robert Yawger.

This pivot is reminiscent of that of 2014, which saw Saudi Arabia suddenly flood the market, in particular to counter the emergence of the United States and the shale oil boom. The price of WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also called Texas Light Sweet, is a variation of crude oil that serves as a standard in setting the price of crude and as a raw material for oil futures contracts with the Nymex (New York Mercantile Exchange). ), the stock exchange specializing in energy. ended up falling to $26 in early 2016.

“I don’t believe in a price war, but the hypothesis is more plausible today than it was on Friday,” argued Robert Yawger. “They are losing patience.”

These developments come against a backdrop of deterioration in the global economic situation. According to JPMorgan analysts, demand grew in December at its weakest rate in nine months.

Beyond that, the Saudi turnaround is a bad signal for the unity of OPEC and its allies in the OPEC+ agreement.

In addition to the defection of Angola, the cartel must deal with the influx of Iranian barrels, Iraq’s desire to increase its production and “Russia which is spraying everyone it can, in particular India and China”, according to Robert Yawger, for whom OPEC+ “is cracking”.