2024-03-08 22:24:14
Following the incident during a visit by the Greek Prime Minister to Odessa, contradictory explanations are circulating. Western politicians must consider how safe their visits to the war-torn country are.
Zelenskiy and Mitsotakis also visited the site of an earlier rocket attack in Odessa on Wednesday.
Ukraine Presidency / Imago
The Ukrainian president and Greece’s head of government narrowly escaped a Russian missile attack on Wednesday. It is unclear how close the impact in Odessa came to the delegations: CNN writes from 500 meters, Greek media, citing government sources, from less than 200. The Osint specialist Mark Krutov, however, is leaving from a greater distance. In any case, Volodimir Selenski and Kyriakos Mitsotakis fled in their cars; the explosion was felt and visible. The delegations were uninjured, but five people were killed in the Odessa port area.
Since then, there has been speculation about whether Moscow deliberately targeted the meeting. Bloggers and Greek sources write that the attack was aimed at Zelensky, but do not provide any evidence for this. Moscow and Kiev denied a connection: While the Ukrainians talk about another example of indiscriminate bombing, the Russians claim that they shelled a hangar with naval drones.
Moscow’s revenge for a sunk warship?
This explanation seems plausible. The Ukrainians sank a modern Russian patrol ship on Tuesday night – the third boat since February. Naval drones were always used, with Odessa, as the most important port, also having great military importance for the Black Sea. The Russians regularly strike back after such attacks.
It doesn’t matter to them whether civilian or military targets are destroyed. For them, the port of Odessa is also a legitimate destination as a hub for Ukrainian grain exports. The Russians can no longer block them because their Black Sea Fleet is weakened. Instead, according to Ukrainian information, they have attacked the port 880 times with drones and 170 times with missiles since their unilateral withdrawal from the grain agreement in July 2023.
People from Odessa react to the explosion during the visit of the two top politicians.
AP
Nevertheless, new security questions now arise: As far as is known, there have been no attacks so close to top politicians, although Zelensky, for example, regularly visits places close to the front. International delegations also travel to Ukraine regularly, more than 700 times since the invasion, according to Ukrainian Railways. There were only a few threatening situations. German Foreign Minister Baerbock cut short a visit to Mikolaiv in February because a Russian reconnaissance drone was following her.
Even if this is not officially confirmed, it seems likely that Moscow is informed about the routes of high-ranking politicians in order to avoid accidents. When Joe Biden visited Kiev last year, it was hard to keep it a secret. Rumors about the visit were already circulating the evening before. According to media reports, the Russians were informed, as was the case during the visit of the EU Commission President. A minister also confirmed to the NZZ in 2022 that the Russians “know well” about his trip, without giving details.
Political murders during war have unpredictable consequences
Even if an assassination attempt on Zelenskiy and his visitor in Odessa is possible, in principle everyone has an interest in not escalating the war further through such a provocation. A targeted killing can trigger a dynamic that is difficult to control. Assassination attempts on the political leaders of war opponents are historically very rare. In 1914, the assassination of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne by Serbian conspirators directly triggered the First World War.
If Russia were to specifically target foreign heads of government, it would risk drawing the West even more directly into the Ukraine war. The Ukrainians also shy away from such steps against Putin and his immediate entourage, even though military intelligence has repeatedly murdered high-ranking collaborators.
Even if the rockets only accidentally landed near the top politicians in Odessa, Moscow would be happy about the consequences: Western heads of government will now think twice about whether they want to underline their support with personal visits or stay at home for security reasons.
Odessa is also a city steeped in history for the Greeks.
Nina Liashonok / Imago
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