<오늘의 미나리>
1. Macro
◆Main indicators (stock/bond/dollar/crude oil/gas/coin)
US stock market started mixed
10-year KTB 3.42% 2-year KTB 4.01%
Crude oil and natural gas also remain flat
Gold price rises slightly, coin exceeds $30,000
◆IMF World Outlook Report
The title of the IMF forecast report is
“ROCKY RECOVERY”
Unstable recovery, many difficulties
Global growth lower than forecast in January
2.9%->2.8%
U.S. growth forecasts rise
1.4% -> 1.6% in 2023
Medium-term global growth rate forecast to hit a record low of 3.0%
What are the risk factors identified by the IMF?
Excessive debt/credit spreads
South Korea’s economic growth rate has also slowed down.
1.7%->1.5%
IMF global economic growth rate 1.7->2%
China growth 4.3->5%
“When US prices stabilize,
“The ultra-low interest rate situation is coming again”
“Population aging and productivity slowdown
The neutral rate will be well below 1%.”
Larry Summers “Government Debt, Armaments Expansion”
Considering the neutral rate of 1.5-2%”
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index/China New Loans
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 90.1
89.0 Exceeded expectations… Slight decrease compared to the previous month
In March, new loans in China reached 3.89 trillion yuan.
Exceeding the expected 3.23 trillion… Delivery doubled
◆(12:00) EIA Short-term Energy Outlook/Shale M&A Wind
Intraday EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
Examine the possibility of oil price impact
Exxon (XOM) is eyeing shale companies
Preliminary negotiations to acquire Pioneer Resources (PXD)
PXD share price rise favorable?
WSJ “It is difficult to complete the acquisition until the end of the year”
Will shale M&A become more active?
“Acquisition is better than drilling”
M2’s warning/deterioration of credit conditions
U.S. and European money supply growth slows
“Economic recession, deflation approaching”
Monetarists “M2 influences economic downturn”
“Sudden reduction in money supply after interest rate hike”
Nomura “The M2 contraction in the US is due to the rapid suspension of austerity”
The IMF also said, “The cycle of interest rate hikes should have been gentler”
British economists warn of currency cuts
“Possibility of Deflation”
58% of consumers “It’s harder to use credit than a year ago”
53% “It will be more difficult in the next year”
Credit crunch, loan decline begins
Deterioration in consumer sentiment following rapid tightening
◆CPI Notice/Fed Watch Status/Wall Street Analysis
March CPI inflation release tomorrow
Core CPI expected to rise 0.4% MoM
ING “If it exceeds 0.4%, it will increase the power of raising interest rates”
MS “0.3% rise, 25 basis point increase maintained”
LPL Financial “Time to rethink old strategies”
Stock-bond ratio 6:4 portfolio attention
BOA “12 Signs of a Recession”
“If the ISM manufacturing PMI is below 46.3..45, it will stagnate”
“PMI New Orders Reduced by 44.3..EPS”
“Reduce short- and long-term Treasury interest rates.. Sell stocks in May”
Wells Fargo “Adjust 10% within 3-6 months”
S&P 4200 outlook changed direction
Discussion of bond curve inversion, banking crisis, etc.
“Economic downturn in the second half, 7.5% rise enough this year”
Yellen, Goolsby, Harker, Kashkari
Public speaking remarks one after another today
2. News
Will the banking crisis subside?
Will the banking crisis subside?
FHLB statistics reassured the market
FHLB lent $304 billion two weeks ago
Weekly loans down to $34 billion at the end of March
There is still an emergency blood transfusion left
This means that the bank run is reduced.
CS is also receiving subsidies from the Swiss National Bank.
Partial repayments. 31 billion francs reduction in cash
Mid-March 567 billion francs -> 532 billion francs
“I don’t need any more support…recovering trust”
“Bank run interrupted, rescue operation successful”
AT1 bonds hit Asia..Litigation pending
Warren Buffett’s Japan Betting
Warren Buffett’s Betting on Japan
“Review of additional investment in Japanese stocks”
Visiting Japan for the 5th boss
“Increase your holdings”
Alibaba launches chatbot
Alibaba launches its own chatbot ‘Chen Wen’
Available in English and Chinese.. Implementation of Deep Talk
“The cloud has been key for 14 years,
4Q growth rate of 3%..AI is the main business”
China Announces Draft AI Chatbot Rules
“The core value of socialism, the state cannot be subverted”
“No ethnic, racial or gender discrimination”
Anticipating tightening of regulations for “preventing misinformation”
◆Exceeded $30,000 in coins..Coin market outlook
Bitcoin crosses $30,000 for the first time since June
“Stop raising interest rates, vitality to coins”
Pay attention to tightening trend after CPI announcement
Bitcoin Opportunity Fund “mid-to-late 30,000 possible”
Newmont, Newcrest Diligent
Acquisition offer for $19.5 billion, raised from $17 billion
$1.1 special dividend at 46% premium
If successful, the world’s largest gold mining company
Expected to rise from 25% of copper business
“From 50% copper to revenue by 30 years”
3. Performance
Albertsons/Carmax
Albertson, a supermarket with more than expected.. Be careful with expectations
Sales $18.27 billion ($18.2 billion) EPS $0.79 (0.68)
4. Report
◆JP “Oversold on the border of economic recession”
Lending Club, presents an opinion on ‘expansion’
“Solid commission, interest income…personal loan opportunity”
“Overpricing with a loss rate in the mid-10% range”
“Low operating costs with an 8% share of personal loans”
Target $11..60.3% reserve
◆JP “Possibility of struggle due to worsening loan environment”
Upstart ‘underweight’ opinion
“AI lending potential, but short-term headwinds”
“Corona benefit effect disappears… consider low credit”
“Wait for macros to improve”
Target $11..36% drop potential
◆Morgan Stanley “Expectation of business diversification”
Added UnitedHealth ‘buy’ list
44% of revenue from health insurance..56% from subsidiary Optum
“Evenly Profits from Medical, Prescription, and Technical Documents”
Competitiveness of Medicare is also strong… Membership expected to increase
Target price of $587, 13.9% room
◆GS, Whirlpool (WHR) upgrade rating
Neutral -> Buy… $160 target
The short-term path is unclear, but
“Currently undervalued… 20% upside potential”
GS “Home appliance industry bottoms out in 2023”
The decline in raw material prices is also a point
Reporter Jeong So-ram [email protected]