The war launched by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will be one year old. Since the outbreak of the war, China has not condemned Russia and is considered to be on the same side with Russia. However, it participated in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on the 15thdiscussionScholars agree that the relationship between China and Russia has not been affected by the Ukrainian-Russian War, and Huang Shihe, a senior researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, even said that China does not want to be a mediator.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace held an online seminar on the 15th, inviting Alexander Gabuev, a senior researcher at the foundation, Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, and Huang Shihe, to analyze the Sino-Russian relationship in the Ukrainian-Russian War relation. Huang Shihe mentioned that the international reaction has brought China and Russia closer, and both sides are against the Western camp, economically complementary, and the relationship between the leaders is a behind-the-scenes factor.
Huang Shihe said that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Vladimir Putin) have tightened their grip on power in the past six months to ensure that there will be no different voices in society and the country. “Compared with the cost of change, autocratic leaders are more inclined to reinforce one’s own commitment to a particular strategy or behavior”. However, she also said that China’s close relationship with Russia does not mean that it is on the same front as Russia.
In September 2022, Xi Jinping and Putin at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. (Associated Press)
“China wants to have the freedom and flexibility to position itself in different ways and speak different words to different audiences,” Huang Shihe pointed out. Xi Jinping made it clear to US President Joe Biden that he could not accept the threat of nuclear weapons. “This is in line with China,” For Central Asian countries concerned about Russia’s violation of the UN Charter, emphasizing support for sovereignty and territory is an appropriate statement. When Xi Jinping met with Putin, he said that he wanted to jointly resist hegemony and power politics.
Both Gabuyev and Li Mingjiang said that the relationship between China and Russia is as usual, but Gabuyev believes that this relationship is gradually shifting towards China, “not an alliance relationship, but close coordination, and it is more and more in line with what China wants. need”. Li Mingjiang said that the Ukrainian-Russian war was not a key issue in the Sino-Russian war, so it had no negative impact, and China did its best not to make Russia feel betrayed by it.
China, Russia Non-Union Relations
“Chinese officials want to keep distance from Russia, but (China-Russia) relations are basically still strong.” Li Mingjiang mentioned that the U.S. distraction from the Asia-Pacific region is a beneficial part of the Ukrainian-Russian war to China, and China will regret it Partly, it may be that the Sino-Russian relations and the Ukrainian-Russian war were not properly handled at the beginning, but I will not regret not expressing my position.
NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. (Associated Press)
In 2013, China and Ukraine signed“Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation”, referring to “providing corresponding security guarantees to Ukraine in the event of aggression with the use of nuclear weapons or threat of such aggression”. When asked about this matter, Li Mingjiang bluntly said that the text of the agreement is also quite vague, but this has also been used to criticize China for failing to follow through on its promises, which may be one of the things China regrets.
Gabuyev said it would be a strategic nightmare for China if Russia switched to supporting American democracy or joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), so let Russia remain less hostile, less aggressive, and even neutral, A pro-China foreign policy is only beneficial to China, and China and Russia are a small circle of dictators among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and will maintain their camp.
“China also understands that it is important to maintain relations with the Western camp,” Gabuyev said. Therefore, China is like a country that respects international laws and has substantial interests with Russia, but is afraid of affecting relations with the Western camp if it appears to be friendly with Putin. He also said, if China strongly condemns Russia, will it help the relationship with the United States? “the answer is negative”.
Gabuyev believes that the Western camp may pursue issues such as human rights in Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, theft of intellectual property, and the PLA budget. Although supporting Putin is one of the problems facing US-China relations, it is not a basic issue. What is needed is to mend relations with the Western camp and keep Putin in power. Li Mingjiang gave a negative answer to whether China will assist Russia to be defeated.
China-Russia East First Natural Gas Pipeline. (File photo: AP)
China has no intention of helping Russia avoid being defeated
“If Russia is completely defeated, China cannot be saved.” Li Mingjiang said that China may not have a strong motive to help prevent Russia from being defeated, because if China helps Russia, the relationship between the United States and China will completely collapse, which is extremely serious to China The consequences, “I don’t think Xi Jinping and China are ready to accept the consequences”. He believes that if Russia becomes weaker due to the defeat, Xi Jinping may accept this situation.
Huang Shihe mentioned that China had no direct and important interests in helping Russia in the Ukrainian-Russian War, and if China helped Russia avoid defeat in the war, it would affect its reputation in the southern countries. She said that although many developing countries have ambivalent views on the Ukrainian-Russian war, it does not mean that they agree to invade sovereign countries. As for China’s alleged increase in trade with Russia, which is tantamount to secretly assisting Russia, Li Mingjiang holds a different view.
Li Mingjiang said that Chinese companies are actually quite cautious. For example, shipping companies refuse to transport Russian oil, and banks do not conduct foreign exchange business with Russian companies. These companies may learn lessons from sanctioned companies such as Huawei and ZTE, but there are always loopholes. For example, Chinese companies that have been sanctioned risk trading with Russia, but the Chinese official level does not want to be involved in the war, nor does it want to be criticized for supporting Russia.
When asked about the possibility of China mediating the Ukrainian-Russian war, Huang Shihe bluntly said that China does not want to be a peacemaker, because this move will not exchange for the weakening of the strategic competition between Europe and the United States, and China’s recognition of its own influence on Russia. . Gabuyev said that China has no precedent for mediation. Even though it has a lot of cards in hand, it is clear how much attention this war has received, and Chinese colleagues have said that Russia’s foreign policy is like a typhoon.
More wind media reports