published23. May 2022, 02:12
A new report paints a bleak picture of the future: A toxic mix of security and environmental crises is producing new threats to peace. But there is also hope.
“Toxic mixture”: Environmental crises, security crises and other threats such as the corona pandemic work together.
AFP / Prakash Singh
Persistent drought combined with poverty and weak government is driving people into the arms of extremists. (May 15, 2022)
AFP/Tony Karumba
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The research institute Sipri in Stockholm has published a report on the global security situation.
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A mixture of environmental and security crises therefore harbor complex risks.
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The report shows how environmental crises – climate change, scarcity of resources, species extinction – can interact with security crises and other threats such as the corona pandemic.
According to the research institute Sipri, a dangerous mixture of environmental and security crises harbors complex risks for peace in the world. In a report published on Monday, peace researchers from Stockholm warn that decision-makers are not yet prepared for this “new age of risks”. It paints a bleak picture of the future global security situation.
The report shows how environmental crises – climate change, scarcity of resources, species extinction – can interact with security crises and other threats such as the corona pandemic. Sweden’s former Foreign Minister and EU Environment Commissioner Margot Wallström writes in the foreword: “The mixture is toxic, profound and harmful. And institutions with the power to find solutions are waking up far too slowly.”
In Somalia, for example, persistent drought and other consequences of climate change, combined with poverty and a weak government, have driven people into the arms of the Islamist terrorist militia al-Shabaab, they say. In Central America, the effects of climate change on grain harvests, combined with violence and corruption, increased migration towards the US.
Number of conflicts doubled
“Many experts argue that we are at a crucial point: we can let the environmental crisis take its course or recognize the problem now and do something about it,” said Sipri director Dan Smith of the German Press Agency. “The bad news is that this extremely important moment comes at a time when international politics is in a terrible state.” Relations between the major powers are “toxic and dangerous”, populism and nationalism are on the rise.
According to the report, the number of armed conflicts involving at least one state and the number of people killed in conflicts doubled in the 2010s, as did the number of refugees and displaced people worldwide. After years of decline, the number of operational nuclear warheads rose again in 2020. Last year, global military spending peaked at more than $2 trillion.
At the same time, the report describes alarming developments in the environment. About a quarter of all species are threatened with extinction. The number of pollinating insects is declining dramatically. “Climate change is making extreme weather events such as storms and heat waves more frequent and more intense, reducing the yield of important food crops and increasing the risk of large-scale crop failures.” Politicians must assess risks better and tackle the fight against environmental crises with determination.
Researchers also want to give hope
The Sipri researchers called for a rapid transition to a “green economy”, which must also be fair and peaceful. “With such a big economic change, there are always winners and losers,” Smith said. “The interests of the people most affected by this transition must be taken into account. Otherwise there will be new risks for conflicts.”
Even in the face of acute crises such as the corona pandemic and war in Ukraine, one should not lose sight of this goal, Smith warned. “It seems like most governments can only handle one crisis at a time. That’s a huge complicating factor.” But the pandemic has also shown what is possible with determination and international cooperation – for example in the development of vaccines.
The researchers therefore also want to give hope. “Humanity has the knowledge and skills to get out of the trouble we’re in,” Smith said. But action must be taken now. “Every day we put it off, the job gets harder.”
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(DPA/chk)