Senate primary runoff, marking their fourth electoral trip to the polls since June. Sen. Lindsey Graham on the November general election ballot, as reported by the Associated Press.
Sen. Lindsey Graham on July 11 from an aortic tear. The veteran senator had previously won the June 9 Republican primary for renomination to the seat he first secured in 2002. Senate and his designated slot on the fall ballot to compete for another six-year term. To fill the immediate Senate vacancy, Republican Gov. Henry McMaster appointed the late senator’s sister, Darline Graham, to serve out the remainder of the term, according to the Associated Press.
Rep. Ralph Norman, a five-term congressman who previously ran for governor earlier in the cycle and placed third in that primary race, as detailed by the Associated Press. In the initial special primary held on August 11, Darline Graham secured first place with approximately 33% of the vote, while Norman captured roughly 25%. U.S. Rep. Russell Fry followed in third place with about 20% of the vote before ultimately endorsing Graham.
Electoral Geography and Voter Alignment
Geographic strongholds played a decisive role in shaping the August 11 primary results. Darline Graham swept counties across central South Carolina—including the Columbia area—as well as the Lowcountry region encompassing Charleston, while posting her highest percentages along the Georgia border, according to the Associated Press. Conversely, Norman concentrated his strongest support in the Piedmont and Upstate regions, anchored by Greenville County.
Greenville County stands as the most populous county in South Carolina and consistently drives the highest volume of votes in statewide Republican primaries. However, it maintains an independent streak, having previously bucked front-runners in past cycles and favoring alternative candidates in recent statewide contests. Other large voting blocs include Democratic-leaning Richland and Charleston counties, alongside Horry, Lexington, and Spartanburg counties, which carry substantial weight in Republican primaries. According to voter registration figures cited by the Associated Press, South Carolina does not require voters to register by political affiliation out of approximately 3.4 million registered voters statewide.
Primary Turnout and Rules for Tuesday
Participation metrics across the prolonged primary season demonstrate shifting voter engagement. Senate primary, while about 336,000 participants turned out for the August 11 special primary, according to the Associated Press. Election officials note strict rules regarding participant eligibility for the runoff: voters who cast ballots in the June 9 Democratic primary are barred from participating in the Tuesday Republican runoff. Only registered voters who sat out the June primaries entirely or voted in the Republican contests are eligible to cast ballots.
Turnout patterns also reflect significant reliance on early voting options. Approximately 29% of votes in the June 9 primary were cast early in person or via absentee mail, a trend the AP Decision Team and local election monitors are closely tracking as Tuesday’s numbers come in, according to the Associated Press.
What Lies Ahead in the General Election
Polls for Tuesday’s runoff close at 7 p.m. ET, at which point the AP Decision Team will track returns and declare a winner. The triumphant Republican nominee will advance to face the Democratic nominee, Charleston pediatrician Annie Andrews, in the general election, according to the Associated Press. Historically, the seat leans heavily Republican; Lindsey Graham secured reelection in 2020 with 54% of the vote, and President Donald Trump carried the state in 2024 with 58% of the vote.
As election night unfolds, analysts and decision desks will monitor up-to-the-minute precinct reporting across the state’s key counties to determine who will ultimately carry the mantle for the Republican Party into November.
