Spain’s governing PSOE party led by Pedro Sánchez has dropped to 24.6% in a Sigma Dos poll published by El Mundo, following the devastating Urda train crash in Toledo that claimed 69 lives, with early elections now scheduled for November 29.
The tragedy in Urda—occurring just nine months after a similar rail disaster in Adamuz, Córdoba, which killed 46 people—has severely compounded political pressures on the incumbent socialists. Ilmessaggero.it reported that the new survey, conducted between October 29 and 30 among 2,505 respondents, reveals a sharp drop of one and a half points in a single week. The ruling party now sits more than seven points below its 31.7% showing in the July 2023 general elections, threatening to push their seat count in the 350-member Congress below the threshold of one hundred.
The Rise of the Conservative Coalition
As the PSOE struggles to retain its voter base, the political landscape shifts firmly toward the right ahead of the upcoming November ballot. Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s Partido Popular has climbed to 31.1%, gaining half a point over seven days and projecting between 133 and 139 deputies. Concurrently, Santiago Abascal’s Vox has surged to 19.3%, positioning the radical right party to nearly double its current delegation of 33 lawmakers.
Together, the PP and Vox command an estimated 196 seats in the latest polling data. That combined total comfortably clears the 176-seat threshold required for an absolute majority in the national Congress.
| Political Force | Polling Share | Projected Seats | 2023 Election Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (PP) | 31.1% | 133–139 | 33.1% (137 seats) |
| PSOE | 24.6% | 97–103 | 31.7% (121 seats) |
| Vox | 19.3% | Not specified | 33 seats |
| Frente Amplio | 7.1% | Not specified | 12.3% (Sumar) |
| Podemos | 1.9% | Not specified | Not specified |
Left-Wing Fragmentation Deepens
The political fallout extends well beyond the prime minister’s party, leaving the broader left flank deeply fractured and weakened. Frente Amplio—uniting Sumar, Izquierda Unida, Comuns, and Más Madrid—slumps to 7.1%, marking a steep decline from the 12.3% share Sumar secured independently in 2023. Meanwhile, Podemos stagnates at 1.9%, compounding the governing bloc’s electoral vulnerability with less than a month remaining before voters cast their ballots.
