The Kremlin’s hybrid warfare campaign aims to gauge Western resolve and divide European capitals.
Back in February 2022, when the current invasion of Ukraine began, a government military adviser created a brand-new computer folder titled “World War III.” Today, statements from European politicians and public observations from intelligence services echo that stark framing. The baseline conjecture in defense circles is that Moscow is preparing for a sustained military escalation involving actions within European NATO territory anytime from this autumn through 2029.
Yet, a distinct geographical divide colors these warnings. The nervousness pulsing through the northern and eastern flanks of the alliance often contrasts with the relative calmness found among military officials in Europe’s southern tier. But even down south, none of the defense experts interviewed for this reporting completely dismiss the worst-case scenarios.
The Psychology of Intimidation and Hybrid Tactics
Before assessing capabilities, an Air Force general who has coordinated Spanish fighter jet missions abroad calls for sober restraint. The Kremlin’s primary goal is to intimidate Europe, and a sensationalist free press risks playing right into Moscow’s hands. Fear makes a poor counselor for both the public and timid politicians.
The current state of the war in Ukraine—bogged down by grinding ground attrition alongside increasingly severe counterstrikes inside Russian territory—is taking a heavy toll on Putin’s administration. Naturally, any maneuver that fractures European unity or stokes a sense of vulnerability serves the Kremlin’s strategic interests. The weapon of choice is hybrid warfare, deliberately stopping just short of direct military intervention.
“I doubt there will be an invasion in the East, but we could see an increase in actions of all kinds that contribute to their purpose—to frighten and divide,” notes a senior military source. “That said, without going too far, because things are not in a position for Russia to open another front.”
A Multi-Domain Strategy Targeting Democratic Elections
Whether these hybrid maneuvers manifest in cyberspace, airspace incursions, territorial border breaches, or maritime provocations remains an open operational question. Moscow is also positioning itself to exploit democratic electoral vulnerabilities across the continent. According to military analysts, the Kremlin is throwing its weight behind political factions on both the extreme right and extreme left that advocate for closer ties with Moscow.
This multi-domain pressure requires a fundamental shift in how Western democracies respond. Retired Admiral Juan Rodríguez Garat, former head of the Spanish Fleet and a prominent geostrategic analyst, argues that Europe’s primary deficit is not material rearmament, but moral rearmament. Citizens must internalize the political responsibility of national and collective defense.
| Strategic Metric | Northern/Eastern Flank View | Southern Flank View |
|---|---|---|
| Perceived Threat Level | Immediate and high-probability hybrid activity | Calculated pressure designed to coerce, short of war |
| Primary Russian Objective | Test NATO Article 5 cohesion and US commitment | Sow panic, divide allies, and influence elections |
| Recommended Antidote | Moral rearmament, unwavering firmness, societal resilience | Proportional deterrence without overreaction |
Drawing on Spain’s experiences with migration pressures in Ceuta, Rodríguez Garat emphasizes that hybrid actions cannot be answered with reciprocal gray-zone tactics alone, but require unwavering institutional firmness. Firmness means projecting an attitude that convinces the aggressor of eventual failure, rendering provocative actions futile.
Keeping the Pressure High Without Crossing the Threshold
Against this backdrop of psychological warfare, another high-ranking naval analyst argues that Russia is deliberately capitalizing on regional tensions to terrify European societies, particularly frontline nations that are most vocal in their support for Kyiv. The explicit goal of this campaign is to frighten populations that understand Soviet history intimately and form the bedrock of European backing for Ukraine.
Analysts anticipate that this low-intensity friction will continue. To unnerve eastern societies without triggering an uncalculated kinetic clash with NATO, Moscow relies on familiar gray-zone friction: drone flights, helicopters crossing borders briefly, and fighter jets probing allied airspace. These calculated stunts generate headlines and ensure European populations feel constant pressure.
So far, the European response to these hybrid provocations remains uneven.
