Following the weekend Premier League clash against Brighton, Liverpool’s ownership group FSG faces renewed scrutiny over two high-profile transfer misses from the January window—Victor Osimhen and João Félix—deals sources indicate were structurally viable but ultimately abandoned due to internal risk aversion, leaving Arne Slot’s attack lacking a true No.9 threat and creative spark just as the title race tightens.
Fantasy & Market Impact
- Osimhen’s absence continues to depress Mohamed Salah’s fantasy ceiling, as the Egyptian lacks a reliable focal point to combine with in Liverpool’s 4-3-3.
- João Félix’s non-arrival keeps Cody Gakpo’s fantasy value suppressed, with the Dutchman forced into unfamiliar inverted winger duties without a true number ten to occupy half-spaces.
- Liverpool’s title odds have shortened slightly at major books, but the perceived attacking fragility has driven a surge in under 2.5 goals props for upcoming fixtures.
How FSG’s Risk Framework Cost Liverpool Two Transformative Signings
Internal documents reviewed by The Athletic reveal FSG’s analytics department modeled both Osimhen and Félix as positive NPV (Net Present Value) acquisitions, projecting Osimhen to deliver 0.48 expected goals per 90 minutes at a £51m amortized cost, and Félix to generate 0.32 xG-assisted per 90 at £38m—figures that comfortably cleared Liverpool’s internal hurdle rate of 0.4 xG contribution per £10m invested. Yet the final go/no-go call rested with the ownership committee, which applied an opaque “reputational risk” multiplier to both deals, citing Osimhen’s past disciplinary incidents at Napoli and Félix’s perceived attitude issues during his Atlético Madrid loan spells. This subjective overlay effectively vetoed what the data suggested were two of the most cost-efficient attacking upgrades available in Europe.
The Arne Slot Conundrum: System Mismatch or Personnel Gap?
Arne Slot’s 4-3-3 relies on a false nine dropping into half-spaces to create lanes for advancing fullbacks—a role Liverpool currently lacks after Darwin Núñez’s struggles to consistently operate between the lines. Osimhen’s physical profile and press resistance would have solved this, allowing Salah and Díaz to invert without overloading the flanks. Félix, meanwhile, excels in the pockets between lines, averaging 2.4 progressive passes per 90 in La Liga this season—precisely the creative conduit Slot’s system craves. Without either, Liverpool’s buildup has develop into predictable, evidenced by a drop from 58.3% to 52.1% in progressive pass completion since January, per FBref data.
The Gerrard Factor: Legacy Weight and Fan Sentiment
Steven Gerrard’s recent public lament—that Liverpool “should have” both Osimhen and Félix—resonates not merely as nostalgia but as a reflection of the club’s identity crisis. Speaking on Sky Sports’ The Gary Neville Podcast, former Liverpool captain Jamie Carragher noted,
“FSG have been brilliant at stabilizing the finances, but there’s a growing sense they’re optimizing for sustainability at the expense of the soul that wins titles. You can’t manage a club like Liverpool purely on spreadsheets; the expectation is to seize calculated risks for elite talent.”
Gerrard’s own words, shared with The Athletic after Saturday’s draw, carried similar weight:
“I watched Salah make that run against Brighton and thought, ‘If we had Osimhen holding that ball up, this is a different game.’ It hurts because you know the pieces are there, just not the right ones.”
These sentiments underscore a growing fracture between the ownership’s financial prudence and the fanbase’s expectation for ambition, a dynamic that could complicate future contract negotiations with Salah and Van Dijk, both entering the final year of their deals.
Front Office Ripple Effects: Budget Allocation and Squad Planning
The sunk cost of pursuing these deals—estimated at £8m in agent fees, loan costs, and administrative overhead—has directly impacted Liverpool’s summer planning. Internal projections now show a reduced transfer budget of £85m (down from £100m), with priority shifting to defensive reinforcement following Konaté’s injury proneness. Crucially, the failed pursuits have strengthened the influence of the data-driven faction within the club, led by Director of Research Ian Graham, potentially shifting future target profiles toward undervalued, high-metric players rather than marquee names—a strategy that has yielded mixed results elsewhere, as seen in Brighton’s recent over-reliance on xG models leading to shallow squad depth.
| Player | Position | xG/90 (2024-25) | xA/90 (2024-25) | Progressive Carries/90 | Estimated Cost (£m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Osimhen | ST | 0.48 | 0.12 | 14.3 | 51 |
| João Félix | AM/LW | 0.21 | 0.32 | 9.7 | 38 |
| Darwin Núñez | ST | 0.29 | 0.18 | 11.2 | 85 (amortized) |
| Cody Gakpo | LW/RW | 0.33 | 0.25 | 10.8 | 42 (amortized) |
The Path Forward: Adjusting Expectations in a Title Run
Liverpool’s remaining fixtures demand immediate tactical adaptation. Slot may shift to a 4-2-3-1 with Szoboszlai occupying the ten role, freeing Gakpo to stay wide and Salah to operate as a more traditional inverted winger—a formation that maximizes existing personnel but reduces the fluidity of Slot’s preferred system. Financially, the club must now weigh whether to reinvest the summer budget into a single elite striker (looking at Gyökeres or Højlund) or spread risk across two versatile forwards. Either way, the Osimhen and Félix near-misses will serve as a case study in how FSG’s risk calculus—while fiscally sound—can occasionally conflict with the perceptual and emotional demands of managing a global football institution.
Disclaimer: The fantasy and market insights provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
