Strait of Hormuz Blockade Holds Firm
Progress toward peace talks and oil tanker traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz waterway remain halted, according to reports from Rappler.
The impasse underscores the deep divide between Washington and Tehran as the conflict, launched by the United States and Israel on February 28, continues to restrict commercial shipping through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. Before the war, one out of every five barrels of the world’s oil exports passed through the strait.
Tehran Defies Washington on Waterway Control
Kazem Gharibabadi stated early Saturday that Tehran would continue to enforce a blockade on the waterway.
“This strait will be opened and closed only under Iran’s command, and so long as you do not accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in fantasies, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade,” Gharibabadi said in a post on X, as reported by Rappler. He added that the waterway cannot be seized by a tweet, an aircraft carrier, an order, or an election speech.
Commercial Shipping Plummets to a Crawl
Navigation through the strait has dropped precipitously. According to analysis from ship-tracking firm Kpler cited by Rappler, only two vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday: a grain ship entering Iranian waters and an empty dry bulk ship heading in the opposite direction. A separate empty liquefied petroleum products tanker was also recorded sailing into the Gulf via the strait, while no crude oil shipments were visible.
While some vessels may navigate the route undetected with transponders disabled, current traffic sits far below the daily average of more than 130 ships recorded before the war. Vessels attempting transit without Iranian permission face missile or drone strikes. The United Arab Emirates’ Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reported that two of its vessels were attacked while transiting the strait on Thursday evening, followed by an Emirati state news agency WAM report that another vessel came under attack on Friday.
Spiking Fuel Prices and Economic Costs
Donald Trump addressed the conflict during a political rally in Garden City, New York, on Friday, urging Americans to accept continued high fuel prices as the necessary cost to ensure “a very evil country” cannot obtain a nuclear weapon.
The American Automobile Association reported that the average U.S. price of a gallon of gasoline was about $4.08 on Friday, marking a 29% increase from $3.16 a year earlier. The virtual closure of the strait pushed crude oil futures up by another $1 a barrel on Friday, keeping benchmark Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures on track for weekly gains of 6.0% and 5.4%, respectively.
Diplomatic Channels Stand Frozen
With a tentative June deal to end the war in tatters, diplomatic channels have yielded little progress. Abbas Araqchi stated that no decision has yet been made to restart negotiations with the United States, according to the Iranian Student News Agency. While mediators Qatar and Pakistan remain in contact with Iran to exchange messages, the agency reported that these exchanges do not constitute active negotiations.
