Commercial shipping crews face constant risks of injury and death in the Strait of Hormuz as maritime transit remains severely depressed following the outbreak of the Iran war.
Transit Volumes Rise While Remaining Below Pre-War Levels
Data released on November 6 by the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center showed 325 reported transits through the strait between October 29 and November 4. That total marked an increase of about 17% from the 277 transits recorded the previous week. Yet traffic remains roughly 65% below pre-war levels.
Vessel numbers alone fail to capture the full scope of energy supply disruptions, according to Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iran’s energy and macroeconomics. Middle Eastern crude oil exports across all routes have largely recovered to pre-war levels, sometimes even exceeding those volumes during September and October.
However, the picture for refined petroleum products tells a different story. Pre-war Middle Eastern exports of about 6.2 million barrels of petroleum products a day have roughly halved.
Liquefied natural gas exports have suffered a similar fate. As of September, shipments from Qatar and the UAE sat about 10% below pre-war baselines. Although some modest improvements have materialized, these energy flows remain severely disrupted.
Freight Rates for Crude Tankers Multiply Significantly
Recovering energy export volumes have done little to eliminate the crushing costs of ongoing maritime insecurity. Citing figures from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Khatinoglu noted that average freight rates for large crude tankers traveling from the Middle East to East Asia have multiplied about 12 times. Rates jumped from $3.18 a barrel at the beginning of the year to $37.13 a barrel by the end of October.
Ali Mohammadi, a France-based expert in Iranian affairs, told DW that Tehran’s primary limitation in the waterway is economic rather than military. “Iran’s limitation in the Strait of Hormuz is economic rather than military, because continuing the war has a significant impact on its economy,” Mohammadi said.
It remains entirely unclear how long Iran can sustain these attacks, given a severe lack of reliable public data regarding the nation’s weapons stocks and its replenishment capabilities.
Sporadic attacks inside the waterway differ vastly from a complete closure. Mohammadi pointed out that even if a full shutdown were physically possible, it would carry unsustainable political costs for Tehran. “Iran cannot indefinitely disrupt its allies’ access to the strait,” he told DW.
Alternative Logistics and the Erosion of Strategic Advantage
By threatening commercial navigation, Iran aims to raise the immediate costs of confrontation and extract leverage in diplomatic negotiations. Yet experts caution that this strategy does not guarantee success or concessions. Meanwhile, regional actors are actively engineering workarounds that threaten to permanently diminish the strategic utility of the strait.
According to regional reporting, Iraq recently transferred two million barrels of oil to a supertanker outside the strait in an effort to bypass the high-risk zone entirely. Baghdad plans to acquire additional tankers to expand this logistical model. As regional energy producers and international shipping firms grow increasingly accustomed to ship-to-ship cargo transfers, overland pipelines, and delivery hubs outside Hormuz, Tehran's influence quietly slips away.
Diplomatic initiatives remain nascent. Algeria has offered to mediate the maritime crisis, though the proposal amounts to little more than general willingness without a formal mandate or accepted framework. U.S. Donald Trump has maintained a posture of decisive action, presenting Tehran with a vaguely defined path while regional observers wait for the next escalation.
Ultimately, restoring commercial confidence requires far more than a defensive naval presence. “You cannot expect oil prices to return to pre-war levels simply by relying on US protection for ships in the Strait of Hormuz,” Khatinoglu told DW. Mohammadi echoed that sentiment, asserting that lasting security in the vital waterway depends entirely on a formal end to the war accompanied by a comprehensive diplomatic agreement.
