The prediction that this season’s El Niño phenomenon will be stronger than normal has alarmed the Ecuadorian scientific community, triggering warnings over the survival of unique flora and fauna in the Galápagos Islands. The archipelago of more than 230 islands—with only four inhabited—lies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean roughly 1,000 kilometers, or 620 miles, off the coast of Ecuador.
Temperature Projections and Marine Impact
Climatic conditions in the equatorial Pacific during an El Niño cycle are defined by elevated sea temperatures and heavy rainfall. The intensity of the event is measured by comparing local water temperatures against normal averages. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, known as NOAA, sea temperatures will climb about 2.2 degrees Celsius, or 4 degrees Fahrenheit, above normal.
That projection crosses the threshold for a “very strong” event, which is designated when water temperatures sit 2 degrees Celsius or 3.6 Fahrenheit above the baseline. Franklin Ormaza, a professor and researcher at the Faculty of Maritime Engineering and Marine Sciences of the Higher Polytechnic School of the Coast, known as ESPOL, noted that this increase means “the impact will be significant.”
Marine wildlife faces immediate starvation as heating waters alter the ocean ecosystem. Washington Tapia, director of the conservation organization Biodiversa Ecuador, explained that plankton, algae, and smaller fish species that serve as food for larger marine animals “practically disappear” as temperatures rise. Species most at risk include iconic Galápagos penguins, blue-footed boobies, petrels, flightless cormorants, albatrosses, and sea lions. Coral colonies and regional tuna fishing operations also face serious disruption.
Gustavo Jiménez, a scientist with the Charles Darwin Foundation, stated that starving animal colonies stop reproducing and disperse in search of sustenance, often dying along the way. If the climate phenomenon matches expected magnitudes, the archipelago’s vertebrate population could decrease by at least 20% this year, Jiménez added.
Among monitored species, Galápagos penguins serve as a primary indicator of ecological stress. Data from the Charles Darwin Foundation shows that following the 1998 El Niño—one of the most powerful and destructive cycles—only 400 of the 1,300 existing Galápagos penguins survived.
Threats to Native Forests and Vegetation
Terrestrial ecosystems face parallel pressures from the impending weather shift. Heinke Jager, a scientist at the Charles Darwin Foundation, warned that if El Niño strikes with expected force, the last three remaining Scalesia forests could face disappearance alongside shoreline Opuntia cacti.
These plants exist only in the Galápagos Islands and support complex ecosystems of insects, birds, and smaller plants that comprise the archipelago’s biodiversity. Jager explained that these native species require human intervention because heavy El Niño rains will allow invasive plants, such as blackberries with shorter reproductive cycles, to overrun their territory.
In response, a coalition involving the Ecuadorian government, foundations, and nongovernmental organizations operating in the archipelago has organized a mitigation plan. The program includes the eradication of invasive vegetation, seed collection, and the establishment of nurseries to protect threatened species.
The Galápagos Islands earned designation as a Natural World Heritage Site in 1978 in recognition of unique species of animals and plants that provided the foundation for English naturalist Charles Darwin to formulate his theory of evolution.
