So the candidates already know where the shots are going. Sheinbaum, replacement for the current president in the Morena cartel, will most likely highlight the good economic figures of a country that sees an extraordinary takeoff in investments, trade and employment. And she will have to overcome as best she can the security failure of the current six-year term, which will exceed the death toll of the previous one, not to mention the blood that has been spilled in these pre-campaign days. That is the plank that the opposition will cling to, which has already defined its electoral slogan: For a Mexico without fear. There is nothing more urgent in this country than reducing the violence that devours entire territories.
All in all, it will be difficult to unseat Claudia Sheinbaum, whose qualifications are unbeatable for now: her time in the capital’s government and her many pre-campaign trips have made her well known (84%), while her opponent has had to win over I pulse that race. Gálvez has risen 41 points in this aspect since July 2023. It has also cost him his good runs throughout the country. However, the opinion that the electorate has made of her has not completely taken off, it has even dropped 3 points in political sympathy in that same period, remaining at 39%. Sheinbaum has also faded a bit, but remains at 66%. It is not surprising, therefore, that 63% of those surveyed express an effective voting preference for her, compared to 33% for Gálvez. 30 points can be narrowed in the electoral campaign, and that is what the followers of the PAN, PRI and PRD trust, who will be united in the election under the name of Xóchitl Gálvez. But it will not be easy to completely reverse a predictable result.
There is a third candidate in the running, Jorge Álvarez Máynez, for Movimiento Ciudadano, the party that has accumulated several major errors in recent weeks that have ruined its chances of reaching a meritorious position. The orange formation, which presents itself as a third way in the face of the polarization of the majority blocs, is in clear decline. Máynez only collects 4% of the voting preference and barely a fifth of the population knows him. The candidate ran recently, only when the governor of Nuevo León, Samuel García, had to withdraw from the race due to political impediments. He is still a gray character that the large opposition bloc does not even mention and for the official candidacy he means little or nothing. From January to date he has risen one point in citizen preference, the same as Gálvez. Sheinbaum has dropped two, still insignificant swings that do not set a trend.
The challenge of the campaign will be to modify, each in their favor, the idea that citizens have in their heads, since 69% say they are already sure of the option they will vote for. And attract to itself the vote of the 29% who do not rule out changing their minds. If the result gives last-minute surprises, it will most likely be due to the almost a third of voters who have not yet been completely convinced by anyone. Both candidates have a lot to do to put the population in their favor. Only 39% are sure that their vote will be for the guinda party, the ruling party, while the ballot will go to the alliance members, without last-minute regrets, at 19%. The key is in the margins. Gálvez will have to fight against the effective rejection that half of those consulted still express for her, Máynez will do the same with 34% who do not consider him presidential, and for Sheimbaum it will be somewhat easier (16%). But beware of the 34% who contemplate the need to put a different color on the next Government.
The Moreno candidate rows comfortably in the fluid current shown by her party, the favorite in these elections for 52% of Mexicans. The complete opposite of her adversary, whose sails are weighed down by the headwinds that blow for some of the parties that promote her, such as the PRI, which commands the greatest contempt from her. Citizens seem to be tired of decades of a single party and the recent failures of corrupt governments: only 15% would vote for the tricolor and it still has powerful clientele structures. The PAN is not at its best either, with 19% preferences. And the PRD, at risk of losing electoral registration, attracts 3% of the electorate. Gálvez’s insistence on separating himself from these parties to present himself as a loose verse lies in these well-known opinions of the voters.
The younger population, many agree, will be a crucial factor in this race. Mexico has a very wide population pyramid at an early age and the candidates are moving their campaign with hits on social networks and the use of new technologies. For this survey, 814 people with their valid voter ID card were interviewed in their homes. 52% were women and 38% of the total were young people between 18 and 34 years old. The candidates will also take this into account in the campaign that marks their starting line.