area

1. Rainfall in Shandong, Yunnan, Guangxi and other places, high temperature in parts of Jianghuai and Jiangnan

During the day today, light to moderate rain, local heavy rain or heavy rain occurred in parts of southwestern Liaoning and eastern Liaodong Peninsula, central Shandong and peninsula, northeastern and southern Hebei, central and southern Yunnan, Guangxi, southern and western Guangxi, and southern Hainan Island. .

During the day today, high temperature weather of 35-37°C occurred in southeastern Henan, Anhui, western Jiangsu, central and western Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, central and eastern Hunan, central and eastern Hubei, and southern Chongqing, with local 38-40 °C.

Second, the key weather forecast

Strong precipitation in Sichuan, Shaanxi, Henan, Shandong and other places

From the night of October 2 to October 4, there were moderate to heavy rains in northeastern Sichuan, central and southern Shaanxi, southern North China, and northern Huanghuai. There were heavy rains in some areas, and local heavy rains.

The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a rainstorm forecast at 18:00 on October 2:It is expected that from 20:00 on October 2 to 20:00 on October 3, there will be heavy rain in parts of central and southern Shanxi, central and southern Shaanxi, southern Hebei, western and northern Henan, central and northern Shandong, and northern Sichuan Basin. Among them, southern Shaanxi, Shanxi There were heavy rains and local heavy rains (100-110 mm) in parts of the south, central Shandong, and northern Sichuan Basin (see Figure 1). Some of the above-mentioned areas are accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall (the maximum hourly rainfall is 20-40 mm, and the local area can exceed 50 mm), and there are local strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.

Figure 1 Forecast map of heavy rainfall areas across the country（10moon2Day20:00-3 days 20Time)

Cold wave to end southern heat

From October 3rd to October 4th, there will be a wide range of high-temperature weather processes in Jiangnan, northern South China, Jianghan, Jianghuai and other places. The daily maximum temperature is generally 35-37°C, and 38-39°C in some areas. Above 40℃. After 5 days, affected by the cold air, the high temperature gradually eased.

Central Meteorological Observatory10moon2DayHigh temperature yellow warning continues to be issued at 18:00: It is estimated that during the day on October 3, southern Henan, Anhui, most of Jiangsu, western Shanghai, most of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, most of Zhejiang, Fujian, southern Chongqing, northeastern Guizhou, northeastern Guangxi, central and northern Guangdong and other places There are high temperature weather of 35-36 ℃. Among them, the highest temperature in parts of southern Henan, Anhui, southwestern Jiangsu, central and eastern Hubei, central and eastern Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, central and western Fujian, and northeastern Guangdong is 37-39 ℃. Jiangxi The temperature in the north and northwestern Fujian can reach above 40℃ (see Figure 2).

picture2 National high temperature drop area forecast map (10moon3 days08Time-20Time)

Affected by the strong cold air, it is expected that from 20:00 on October 2 to 20:00 on October 6, the temperature in most parts of the central and eastern parts of the country will generally drop by 8 to 12 degrees Celsius. Huai, Jianghuai, northern Hunan, northern Jiangxi, southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, northern Zhejiang and other places cooled by 12 to 16 °C. Among them, central Inner Mongolia, southeastern Heilongjiang, eastern Jilin, southern Henan, Hubei, and parts of central and northern Anhui The cooling rate can reach more than 18 ℃. On the morning of the 6th to the 7th, the minimum temperature line of 0°C will be located in the northern part of North China and the central part of Northeast China, and the minimum temperature line of 10°C will be located in the northeastern part of Sichuan, central Hubei, southern Henan to southern Shandong. There will be winds of magnitude 4 to 6 in the Yangtze River basin and its north, and gusts of magnitude 7 to 8 in high-altitude areas and rivers and lakes (see Figures 3 and 4). There will be strong winds of magnitude 7 to 8 and gusts of magnitude 9 to 10 in the northern and eastern seas of my country.Central Meteorological Observatory10moon2DayCold wave blue warning issued at 18:00and Yellow Sea Gale Warning.

Figure 3 National strong wind and cooling forecast map（10moon2Day20:00-6 days 20Time)

Figure 4 National minimum temperature forecast map（10moon2Day20:00-6 days 20Time)

3. Specific forecast for the next three days

From 20:00 on October 2nd to 20:00 on the 3rd,There are heavy rains in parts of central and southern Shanxi, central and southern Shaanxi, southern Hebei, western and northern Henan, central and northern Shandong, and northern Sichuan Basin. Among them, there are parts of southern Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, central Shandong, and northern Sichuan Basin. Heavy rain, local heavy rain (100-110 mm). There are winds of magnitude 4 to 6 in most parts of Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, northern Shaanxi, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, central Shandong, and eastern Henan (see Figure 5). There will be strong winds of magnitude 8 to 9 and gusts of magnitude 10 to 11 in the Bohai Sea, northern Yellow Sea and central and western waters.

Figure 5 National precipitation forecast map (20:00 on October 2nd – 20:00 on October 3rd)

From 20:00 on October 3rd to 20:00 on the 4th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of the southeastern Northwest China, western Huanghuai, eastern and western Jianghuai, western Jianghan, northeastern Southwest, and northwestern Yunnan. Among them, southern Shaanxi, western Henan, western Hubei, northeastern Sichuan Basin, There are heavy rains or heavy rains (100-110 mm) in parts of northeastern Chongqing and other places. There are winds of magnitude 4 to 6 in parts of central Inner Mongolia, northeastern Heilongjiang, southern Hebei, southern Shandong, and western Shanghai. Among them, there are winds of magnitude 6 to 7 in parts of the Liaodong Peninsula (see Figure 6). There will be strong winds of magnitude 8 to 9 and gusts of magnitude 10 to 11 in the Bohai Sea, northern Yellow Sea and central and western waters.

Figure 6 National precipitation forecast map (20:00 on October 3rd – 20:00 on October 4th)

From 20:00 on October 4th to 20:00 on the 5th,Northern and eastern Tibet, eastern and southern Qinghai, eastern Northwest China, southern and western North China, western Huanghuai, most of Jianghuai, eastern and western Jianghan, eastern and southern Jiangnan, northern Southwest, central and southwestern Guangdong, Hainan Island, There were light to moderate rains in parts of Taiwan Island and other places. Among them, there were heavy rains (25-45 mm) in parts of southern Shaanxi, southern and western Henan, northern Anhui, and western Hubei. There are 4-5 winds in parts of central Inner Mongolia and northeastern Heilongjiang (see Figure 7).

Figure 7 National precipitation forecast map (20:00 on October 4th – 20:00 on the 5th)

4. Influence and Concern

1. Strong cold air will affect most of the central and eastern regions, pay attention to the adverse effects of strong winds and cooling weather on holiday travel, human health, agricultural production, etc.; strong winds and influences in the Bohai Sea, Bohai Strait, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea;

2. Strong rainfall and local strong convective weather in parts of Sichuan, Shaanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, northern Jiangsu and Anhui, etc., pay attention to the possible flash floods, geological disasters, and small and medium-sized river floods;

3. The impact of high temperature weather in southern China on human health and energy supply on the 3rd and 4th, and pay attention to the development trend of meteorological drought;

4. National Day holiday weather service.