Beyond the Headlines: How the Iran-Israel Conflict Signals a New Era of Global Disorder

Over 5,665 casualties. That’s the human cost of the recent twelve-day war between Iran and Israel, a conflict that erupted in June 2025 and quickly reverberated across the geopolitical landscape. But beyond the immediate devastation, this escalation represents a critical inflection point, demanding a fundamental shift in how we analyze international relations. The traditional, Western-centric frameworks are proving increasingly inadequate to understand a world where power is diffusing, and agency is emerging from unexpected corners. This requires a move towards Global IR, a perspective that centers previously marginalized actors and acknowledges the complex interplay of historical context and domestic politics.

Reconstructing the Narrative: From ‘Other’ to Central Actor

For decades, Iran has been largely framed as the ‘other’ in Western foreign policy and academic discourse. The G7’s swift and unequivocal support for Israel following the initial attacks – reaffirming Israel’s right to self-defense – exemplifies this ingrained bias. To truly understand the dynamics at play, we must actively reconstruct this narrative, beginning with an Iran-centric analysis. This isn’t about excusing actions, but about acknowledging Iran’s perspective, motivations, and agency as a key player, not merely a reactive force. It means recognizing the historical grievances and strategic calculations that underpin its actions, rather than solely viewing them through the lens of Western interests.

The Weight of History: Beyond Hamas and the Shadow War

The June 2025 conflict didn’t materialize in a vacuum. It’s inextricably linked to decades of fraught Iran-Israel relations, dating back to the establishment of the Islamic Republic. However, focusing solely on the immediate triggers – Hamas’s October 7th attack and the subsequent Israeli response in Gaza – obscures a deeper, more insidious escalation. The “shadow war” waged between Iran and Israel, particularly within Syria, has been intensifying for years, laying the groundwork for open conflict. Furthermore, the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and the accusations of genocide leveled against Israel by a UN commission and South Africa at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), created a volatile regional context that fueled the escalation. Ignoring these historical layers provides an incomplete and misleading picture.

Domestic Pressures: Israel’s Illiberalism and Iran’s Uprising

A truly multi-scalar analysis demands we look beyond the international stage and examine the domestic pressures shaping decision-making in both countries. Within Israel, ongoing debates about its increasingly illiberal governance and protests against Prime Minister Netanyahu’s authoritarian tendencies have created internal divisions. In Iran, the conflict unfolded in the wake of the “Jina Uprising” (Woman, Life, Freedom Movement), a powerful expression of popular discontent with the Islamic Republic. This uprising, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, demonstrated a clear rejection of gender-based violence and a demand for progressive change. These internal dynamics aren’t simply background noise; they actively influence the calculations and constraints faced by both governments.

Agency on the Periphery: The Iranian Perspective

The concept of ‘Global IR’ emphasizes the agency of actors traditionally relegated to the periphery of global politics. The Iran-Israel conflict vividly illustrates this point. While the Islamic Republic’s rhetoric often frames Israel as a “Zionist regime” engaged in “savage aggression,” this isn’t simply propaganda. It’s a deliberate construction of Israel using norms and values that challenge the dominant Western narrative. Crucially, even within Iran, there’s not a monolithic view. Segments of the Woman, Life, Freedom Movement, despite facing brutal repression, rejected Israel’s attack, viewing it as a violation of Iranian sovereignty and detrimental to the prospects for genuine democratic change within the country. This demonstrates a complex and nuanced internal debate, highlighting the agency of Iranians to shape their own future.

The Future of Conflict: A More Fragmented World Order

The Iran-Israel conflict isn’t an isolated incident. It’s a symptom of a broader trend towards a more fragmented and multipolar world order. The traditional dominance of the United States is waning, and regional powers are increasingly asserting their influence. This shift necessitates a move away from simplistic, binary analyses and towards a more nuanced understanding of the complex interplay of actors and interests. Expect to see more frequent instances of ‘shadow wars’ and localized conflicts, fueled by historical grievances, domestic pressures, and the pursuit of regional hegemony. The risk of miscalculation and escalation will remain high, particularly in regions with a history of protracted conflict. Chatham House provides ongoing analysis of these shifting geopolitical dynamics.

What are your predictions for the evolving role of regional powers in shaping global security? Share your thoughts in the comments below!