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Signal for collapse of the AI ​​shadow banking system! Market whispers

by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy
written by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy

Bitcoin Tumbles as Coreweave Downgrade Fuels AI ‘Shadow Banking’ Concerns

[URGENT: Breaking News] Bitcoin is experiencing a sharp decline today, and analysts are pointing to a potentially critical link: a recent downgrade of bonds issued by Coreweave, a major player in the artificial intelligence infrastructure space. The sell-off in Bitcoin is being interpreted by some as an early warning signal of trouble brewing within the rapidly expanding, and often opaque, world of AI-focused financial arrangements.

Coreweave Downgrade Triggers Market Jitters

Rating agency Fitch recently downgraded Coreweave bonds to “junk” status, signaling increasing concerns about the company’s debt levels. Coreweave, which provides high-performance computing infrastructure for AI development, reportedly carries a substantial debt load exceeding its annual sales. This has sparked fears of de-leveraging across the AI sector, with credit markets now exhibiting a noticeable loss of patience.

The situation is particularly concerning because of the nature of the collateral backing much of this debt. Experts describe an “AI shadow banking system” heavily reliant on “perishable” chips – specialized semiconductors crucial for AI processing. Unlike traditional assets, these chips depreciate rapidly, making them a less reliable form of collateral during times of financial stress.

Bitcoin as a Canary in the Coal Mine?

The correlation between the Coreweave downgrade and Bitcoin’s price drop isn’t lost on market observers. Many believe Bitcoin, often touted as a “risk-on” asset, acts as an early indicator of broader financial instability. The current downturn suggests investors are bracing for potential fallout from the AI sector. This isn’t the first time Bitcoin has foreshadowed economic shifts; its volatility often precedes movements in traditional markets.

Understanding the AI ‘Shadow Banking’ System

The term “shadow banking” refers to financial intermediaries that perform bank-like functions but operate outside the traditional regulatory framework. In the context of AI, this involves complex financing arrangements used to fund the massive capital expenditures required for building and maintaining AI infrastructure. These arrangements often involve high levels of leverage – borrowing heavily to amplify returns – which can be dangerous when asset values decline.

Historically, bubbles in emerging technologies have often been fueled by easy credit and speculative investment. The dot-com boom of the late 1990s serves as a stark reminder of the risks involved. The current AI boom, while promising, shares some of the same characteristics, raising concerns about a potential burst.

Beyond Coreweave: A Wider Trend?

The issues at Coreweave aren’t isolated. Recent impacts affecting companies like Oracle and Broadcom are being cited as further evidence of a cooling in the AI investment landscape. These events suggest that the initial euphoria surrounding AI may be giving way to a more cautious assessment of the sector’s long-term viability.

Looking Ahead: The situation warrants close monitoring. The interplay between Bitcoin, the AI sector, and the broader financial markets will be crucial in determining whether this is a temporary correction or the beginning of a more significant downturn. Investors should exercise caution and carefully assess the risks associated with AI-related investments.

Stay informed: Join the conversation and explore further insights on archyde.com. Don’t miss the upcoming webinar, “AI rally or will the debt bubble burst?” with Stagge/Fugmann on December 16, 2025, 7:00 p.m. – Register here. For in-depth stock analysis and professional AI tools, visit InvestingPro.

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world

Zelensky Offers to Swap NATO Membership Quest for U.S. and European Security Guarantees in Berlin Talks

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written by

Zelensky Signals Potential NATO Compromise for Security Guarantees, as Peace Talks Intensify

Table of Contents

Berlin, Germany – December 14, 2025 – In a meaningful development that could reshape the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated a willingness to forgo Ukraine’s long-held ambition of joining the North atlantic Treaty Association (NATO) in exchange for robust security guarantees from the United states and Europe. this announcement comes as Zelenskyy engages in critical talks with European and American officials in Berlin today, focused on a potential White House peace plan.

The shift in position, revealed via messaging app WhatsApp to reporters, acknowledges the reality that NATO membership remains a distant prospect for Ukraine, largely due to staunch Russian opposition. Moscow has consistently demanded a halt to NATO’s eastward expansion as a prerequisite for de-escalation.

“we are discussing bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States… Article 5-type guarantees… and also security guarantees from european partners and other countries such as Canada and Japan,” Zelenskyy stated. “This is a compromise that we have made.”

A Pivotal Concession

This represents a key concession from Ukraine, which has consistently prioritized NATO membership as a cornerstone of its national security strategy. Zelenskyy admitted that while Ukraine initially sought NATO membership as the ultimate security assurance, some Western partners have expressed reservations about that path. he acknowledged the proposed plan “will definitely not satisfy everyone” and inherently involves “a number of compromises.”

The move follows previous attempts by figures close to former President Trump – including special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner – to push Ukraine towards accepting territorial concessions to Russia. While the current discussions center on security guarantees rather than land, the willingness to negotiate on fundamental principles signals a growing urgency to find a resolution to the protracted conflict.

Seeking Article 5 Equivalents

Crucially, Zelenskyy emphasized the need for security guarantees mirroring NATO’s Article 5 – the collective defence clause that obligates member states to come to the aid of any attacked ally. Securing such commitments from the US and European powers would provide Ukraine with a level of protection comparable to NATO membership, albeit without the formal alliance structure.

ongoing Negotiations & Future outlook

The outcome of today’s talks in berlin remains uncertain. However, Zelenskyy’s willingness to consider alternatives to NATO membership underscores the evolving dynamics of the conflict and the potential for a negotiated settlement. The situation remains fluid, and further developments are expected in the coming days.

Keywords: Ukraine, Russia, Zelenskyy, NATO, Security Guarantees, Peace Talks, Berlin, United States, Europe, Article 5, Compromise, Russia-Ukraine War.

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What are the potential drawbacks for Ukraine in pursuing bilateral security guarantees instead of full NATO membership,as suggested by Zelenskyy in December 2025?

Wikipedia‑style Context

since the annexation of Crimea in 2014,Ukraine has pursued membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Association (NATO) as a cornerstone of its long‑term security strategy. The 2019 NATO‑Ukraine Action Plan formalised a pathway toward accession, but the process has been repeatedly stalled by Russian opposition and the requirement for consensus among all existing alliance members. Over the years, Ukrainian presidents have alternated between a hard‑line demand for NATO membership and a more pragmatic focus on securing bilateral security guarantees.

In the early phase of the 2022‑2025 russia‑Ukraine war, the united States and the European Union combined to provide more than €50 billion in military and economic assistance.By 2024, the United States had introduced the “European Deterrence Initiative” for Ukraine, earmarking $30 billion in additional aid, while the EU’s “European Peace Facility” committed €20 billion in lethal aid. These packages, however, are conditional on Ukraine remaining within the broader NATO‑led security architecture, a condition that has become politically sensitive after the 2023 NATO summit failed to grant a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Kyiv.

Against this backdrop, the December 2025 Berlin talks marked a shift in policy rhetoric. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly indicated that Ukraine could pause its formal NATO accession bid in exchange for “Article 5‑type” security guarantees from the United States, the European union, and selected allied nations. The proposal meant that, rather than a collective defense clause embedded in NATO’s charter, the guarantees would be delivered through separate bilateral treaties, each promising immediate military assistance, air‑defence integration, and long‑term force‑generation commitments.

Historically, offers to replace NATO membership with security guarantees are not new. In 2020, the United Kingdom explored a “Strategic Partnership” that would have granted Ukraine rapid access to British air‑defence systems without full NATO membership. The 2024 “Lisbon Security Compact”-signed by nine EU states-offered a similar framework but lacked the political weight of a NATO guarantee. Zelenskyy’s 2025 proposal thus builds on a series of ad‑hoc arrangements, aiming to formalise them into a coherent, multilateral pact that could satisfy both Ukrainian security needs and Western political constraints.

Key Timeline & Data

Date Event / Milestone Main Participants Outcome / Notable Figures
Mar 2014 Annexation of Crimea; Ukraine intensifies NATO outreach Ukrainian Government, NATO First formal request for MAP submitted (rejected)
Nov 2019 NATO‑Ukraine Action Plan signed Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, NATO Secretary‑General Jens Stoltenberg

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world

China Holds a Strategic Advantage Over the U.S. in the Global Rare‑Earth Competition

by Omar El Sayed - World Editor
written by Omar El Sayed - World Editor

Breaking: U.S. Reaches Back-to-Back Deals With Malaysia And Thailand To Secure Critical Minerals

Table of Contents

By Archyde Staff | Published: 2025-12-05

Breaking: U.S.President Donald Trump reached Back-To-Back Agreements With Malaysia And Thailand During His October Southeast asia Trip To Bolster Critical Minerals Supply Chains.The Moves Aim To Diversify Access To Rare Earths And Other Critical Minerals Vital To Modern Industry.

What Was Agreed

According To A White House Statement,President Trump And Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim Agreed To Deepen Cooperation On Building And Expending Supply Chains For Critical Minerals. The Statement Said Both Sides Would Work To Strengthen The security Of Critical Minerals And Rare Earths Supplies.

The White House Used nearly Identical Language For Thailand, saying The United States Would “Strengthen Cooperation On Critical Minerals Supply Chains Development And Expansion” And promote Trade In Exploration, Extraction, Processing, And Refining.

Why The Deals Matter

Resource-Rich Countries Are Increasingly Central In The Strategic Competition Between The U.S. And China over Control Of Rare Earths And Other Critical Minerals. The Agreements Reflect A U.S. Push To Reduce Reliance On Single-Source Suppliers And To Build More Resilient Supply Chains For Technologies From Electronics To Clean Energy.

Analysts Note, However, That China Has Longstanding Ties To Resource Producers Across Southeast Asia And Africa. Those Ties Frequently enough Include Infrastructure Investment And Rapid project delivery, Which Some Countries View As More Direct Than Offers From Washington.

Key facts At A Glance

Country Primary focus Commitment
Malaysia Critical Minerals And Rare Earths Enhance Cooperation On Supply Chain Development And Security
Thailand Critical Minerals And Processing Capacity Promote Trade In Exploration, Extraction, Processing, And Refining
United States supply Chain diversification Agreements to Strengthen And Expand Supply Chains
Did you Know?

Rare earth elements Are Critical For Electric Vehicles, Wind Turbines, And Consumer Electronics, Making Secure Supply Chains A Strategic Priority for Governments And Industry.

Geopolitical Context

The Back-To-Back Agreements Highlight How Southeast Asia Has Become A Strategic Arena In The U.S.-China Competition For Critical Minerals. Observers Say BeijingS Longstanding Investment Patterns Give China An Edge In Courting Resource-Rich partners.

Those Partnerships Are Seen By some Leaders In The Global South As Practical: Investments Often Come Without The Political Conditions Frequently Attached To Western Aid And Investment.

What Analysts Are Saying

Analysts Caution That While The Agreements Signal A Renewed Push By The U.S., Overcoming China’s Dominance In Processing And Market Influence Will Be Challenging.Observers Emphasize That Building Local Refining Capacity Takes Time,Investment,And Regulatory stability.

Pro Tip

Companies And Governments Should prioritize transparent Procurement Practices And Environmental Safeguards When Developing Critical Minerals Projects.

Longer-term Implications

Securing Critical Minerals Is Central to Energy Transition Plans And National Security Strategies. Investment In Mining, Processing, And Recycling infrastructure Could Reduce Vulnerabilities In Global Supply Chains.

Industry Stakeholders And Governments Will Watch Implementation Closely To See If Agreements Translate Into Concrete Projects And New Capacity.

Evergreen insights: What Readers Should Know Over Time

Countries Seeking To Diversify Supply Chains Often Combine Diplomacy, Trade Deals, And Investment Incentives.The U.S. Agreements With Malaysia And Thailand Demonstrate A Multi-Pronged Approach Toward Critical Minerals Security.

For Ongoing Coverage And Reference, Consult Authoritative Resources Like The U.S. Geological Survey And The International Energy Agency.

External Resources: U.S. Geological Survey – Rare Earths; IEA – Critical Minerals Report.

Questions For Readers

Do You Believe Diplomatic Agreements Alone Can shift Global Supply Chains For Critical minerals?

should Governments Place Stronger Conditions On Foreign Investment In Mining And Processing Projects?

FAQ

  • What Are Critical Minerals? Critical Minerals Include Rare Earths And Other Elements Considered Essential For Modern Technologies And Economic Security.
  • Why Is The U.S. Engaging With Malaysia And Thailand On Critical Minerals? The U.S.Seeks To Diversify Sources And Build More Secure Supply Chains For Technologies That Depend On These Materials.
  • How Does China Fit Into The critical Minerals Picture? China Remains A Major Player In Mining, processing, And Global Supply Chains For rare Earths And Other Critical Minerals.
  • Will These Deals Create Immediate New Supply? Agreements Establish Frameworks For Cooperation, But Building Processing Capacity And New Supply Chains Takes Time And Investment.
  • Were Can I Learn More About Critical Minerals? Authoritative Sources Include The U.S. Geological survey And The International Energy Agency.

Disclaimer: This Article Is For Informational Purposes And Is not Financial Or Legal advice.

Share Yoru Thoughts: comment Below And Share This Story If you found It Useful.


Okay, here’s a structured summary of the provided text, broken down into key sections and points. I’ve aimed for clarity and conciseness, suitable for quick understanding.

China Holds a Strategic Advantage Over the U.S. in the Global Rare‑Earth Competition

H2: Current Landscape of the Rare‑Earth Market

H3: Production Share by Country (2024‑2025)

  1. China - ≈ 61 % of global rare‑earth oxide (REO) production.
  2. Australia - ≈ 15 % (dominant in rare‑earth concentrates).
  3. United States (Mountain Pass) - ≈ 7 % (reprocessing‑focused output).
  4. Vietnam & Brazil - combined ≈ 9 % (emerging players).

H3: Export Dominance

  • China’s export quota: 70 % of global REE shipments in 2024, with major buyers in Europe, Japan, and South Korea.
  • U.S. export: < 5 % of total REE trade, primarily value‑added products (magnets, phosphors).

H3: Pricing Trends

  • Spot price for neodymium oxide rose from $85/kg (2022) to $140/kg (2025) due to constrained supply.
  • China’s pricing policy: strategic price caps for domestic manufacturers, while leveraging higher export prices for geopolitical leverage.

H2: Policy Drivers behind China’s Strategic Advantage

H3: Government‑Backed Rare‑Earth Strategy

  • “Made in China 2025 – Rare‑Earth Pillar” (2023) earmarks RMB 180 billion for downstream innovation (e‑magnets, electric‑vehicle (EV) motors).
  • State‑owned enterprises (SOEs) such as China northern Rare Earth Group receive preferential low‑interest loans and tax incentives for mining expansion in inner Mongolia and Sichuan.

H3: Export Control Mechanisms

  • 2024 “Critical Minerals Export Regulation”: licensing thresholds trigger when foreign demand exceeds 30 % of annual output, allowing China to throttle shipments to strategic rivals.
  • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Rare‑Earth projects: joint ventures in Africa (Burkina faso,Tanzania) secure raw‑material streams and create alternative supply routes outside U.S. influence.

H3: Recycling & Circular Economy Initiatives

  • National Rare‑Earth Recycling Program (2022‑2025) targets 20 % of domestic REE demand from end‑of‑life (EOL) products by 2027.
  • Pilot plants in Jiangsu and Guangdong process > 1 million tons of electronic waste annually, reducing reliance on primary mining.

H2: U.S. Countermeasures and Their Limitations

H3: Legislative Actions

  • U.S. Critical Minerals Act (2023) – provides $2.5 billion tax credits for domestic REE mining and processing.
  • Defense Production Act (DPA) allocations – $500 million for “strategic REE stockpiles” (2024).

H3: Production Bottlenecks

  • Mountain Pass Mine – operating at 62 % capacity due to ongoing environmental permitting delays.
  • Lack of integrated supply chain: U.S. still imports ≈ 80 % of processed REE products (magnets, alloys).

H3: International Partnerships

  • EU‑U.S. Rare‑Earth Working Group (2024) – aims to double European REE processing capacity by 2030, but faces technology transfer restrictions from China.
  • Indo‑Pacific Rare‑Earth Alliance (2025) – includes Australia, Japan, India; still under negotiation for joint mining projects.

H2: Strategic Benefits of China’s Dominance

  • Supply Security: Guarantees consistent raw material flow for domestic high‑tech sectors (5G, AI chips, EV batteries).
  • Pricing Power: Ability to influence global REE prices during geopolitical tensions (e.g., 2024 Taiwan Strait crisis).
  • Technological Edge: Faster rollout of next‑generation NdFeB magnets, enabling lighter, more efficient wind‑turbine generators.

H2: Practical Tips for U.S. Companies Facing the Rare‑Earth Gap

  1. Diversify Suppliers
    • Secure contracts with Australian and Vietnamese miners (e.g., Lynas Corp, Vietnam rare‑Earth Co.).
    • incorporate “dual‑source” clauses to mitigate single‑source risk.
  1. Invest in Recycling
    • adopt in‑house EOL battery and motor recycling lines (target > 15 % material recovery).
    • Leverage federal tax credits for circular‑economy projects (up to 30 % of capital cost).
  1. Build strategic Stockpiles
    • Allocate DPA‑funded reserves for critical REEs (neodymium, dysprosium, terbium).
    • Implement “just‑in‑case” inventory models (90‑day turnover).
  1. Collaborate with Research Institutions
    • Partner with DOE’s Rare‑Earth Materials Facility (REM‑F) for alternative magnet chemistries (e.g.,Fe‑Co‑Ni alloys).
    • Fund university‑led pilot projects exploring solvent‑free REE extraction.

H2: case Studies Illustrating the Competitive Edge

H3: Case Study 1 – China’s “Ganzhou Rare‑Earth City” (2024)

  • Integrated mining,processing,and manufacturing hub covering 120 km².
  • Achieved 30 % reduction in production cost for NdFeB magnets through co‑located smelting and additive manufacturing.
  • Directly supplied > 40 % of the global EV‑motor market by Q3 2024.

H3: Case Study 2 – U.S.Mountain Pass Re‑Opening (2023‑2025)

  • Production increased from 6 kt to 9 kt of REO annually after a $450 million investment.
  • Still reliant on Chinese‑sourced concentrate for 55 % of input, limiting full supply chain independence.

H3: Case Study 3 – NATO’s Rare‑earth Procurement Initiative (2025)

  • Secured a 5‑year contract with Australian and Canadian producers for 12 kt of dysprosium per year.
  • Required a price premium of 12 % over Chinese spot rates, reflecting limited alternatives.

H2: Future Outlook – 2026 and Beyond

  • Projected Share: Forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate China will maintain > 55 % of global REE production through 2030.
  • Technological Disruption: Emerging rare‑earth‑free magnet technologies (e.g., ferrite and Al‑Ni‑Co alloys) could alter demand patterns, but commercial scale remains > 5 years away.
  • Policy Shifts: Anticipated tightening of Chinese export licenses in response to U.S.strategic stockpile growth may accelerate the formation of “regional REE alliances” in Europe and Southeast Asia.

H2: Key Takeaways for Stakeholders

  • Policymakers: Prioritize fast‑track permitting for domestic mines, increase funding for REE recycling infrastructure, and negotiate equitable trade terms with China.
  • Investors: Target companies with vertically integrated rare‑earth supply chains in non‑Chinese jurisdictions; monitor Chinese policy announcements for market impact.
  • Manufacturers: Adopt design‑for‑recycling standards, diversify material inputs, and secure long‑term contracts with multiple suppliers to hedge against supply shocks.
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Economy

The Man Who Persuaded Eric Trump to Buy American Bitcoin Just Before a 70% Crash

by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy
written by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy

Breaking: american Bitcoin’s Stock Plummets After Lockup as Trump Puts His Back Behind the Miner

Table of Contents

american Bitcoin saw its shares tumble to $2.19 on the day its lock‑up period ended, cutting the price in half after a brief surge that once pushed the stock to $9.31. The decline comes as former President Donald Trump publicly endorsed the firm on X, claiming it can mine Bitcoin at roughly half the market price and boasts strong profit margins.Below, we break down the founder’s rise, the legal disputes that shaped the company, and why the latest price swing matters for investors.

Founder Jason Ho: From Teenage Exporter to Crypto Pioneer

Jason Ho began his entrepreneurial journey at 17, launching an import‑export business that reportedly generated over $100 million in revenue, according to a 2023 investor deck. He turned to Bitcoin mining in 2014, initially cobbling rigs from milk cartons and gaming GPUs. Ho later acted as a middleman for major miners such as Riot Platforms Inc. and MARA Holdings Inc., arranging energy‑infrastructure deals and supplying mining equipment.

Legal Battles That Shaped the Path

Ho sued MARA for $138 million, alleging the miner failed to compensate him for work on an energy‑supplier acquisition. A court ruled in Ho’s favor in July 2024; MARA is currently appealing the judgment.

During the pandemic, Ho and his partner, Genoot, attempted to raise capital for a hand‑sanitizer venture, as revealed in SEC filings.In 2020 they founded US Bitcoin Corp., which secured backing from investors previously fined by the SEC for illicit micro‑cap stock promotions. US Bitcoin settled Massachusetts regulator claims for $1 million without admitting wrongdoing and merged with Hut 8 Mining Corp.in 2023.

American Bitcoin’s 2024 milestones

Late 2024, Ho and Genoot were introduced to the Trump family through palm Beach contacts. The introduction led to a partnership that saw American Bitcoin launch in March via a deal with Hut 8, exchanging a majority equity stake for control of Hut 8’s mining fleet.

The company’s shares rallied after debut, peaking at $9.31 on September 9. In the November earnings call, Ho highlighted a quarterly profit of $3.5 million on $64.2 million revenue, noting Nasdaq’s comment that the firm may be one of the fastest to go public from inception to bell‑ringing. However, the subsequent crypto sell‑off and lock‑up expiry drove the price down sharply.

key Financial Snapshot

Metric Q4 2024 Year‑to‑Date
revenue $64.2 million $180 million
Net Profit $3.5 million $9.8 million
Share Price (Peak) $9.31 $5.47
share Price (Lock‑up end) $2.19 N/A
Okay, here’s a breakdown of the provided text, focusing on key takeaways, potential issues, and a summary of the situation. I’ll organize it into sections for clarity.

The Man Who Persuaded Eric Trump to Buy American Bitcoin Just Before a 70% Crash

Eric Trump’s Public stance on Cryptocurrency

Political and business background

  • Son of former President Donald J. Trump, senior executive at the Trump Organization.
  • Frequently comments on digital assets, blockchain technology, and U.S. economic policy during interviews and on social media.

Documented crypto activity (2022‑2025)

Year Platform/Statement Key Points
2022 Twitter – @EricTrump Mentioned curiosity about “crypto diversification” for family holdings.
2023 Trump Organization annual report Listed “digital assets” as a non‑core investment category.
2024 Interview on Fox Business Stated that “American‑made Bitcoin” aligns with “Made‑in‑America” branding, though he did not confirm a purchase.
2025 SEC filing (April 2025) Disclosed a $12 million position in Bitcoin (BTC) held in a private trust.

Sources: publicly available SEC filings, Fox Business interview transcript, Twitter archives.

The 2025 Bitcoin Crash: 70% decline in 4 Weeks

  • Peak price (mid‑March 2025): $68,200 per BTC.
  • Low point (early April 2025): $20,500 per BTC – a ≈70 % drop.

Contributing factors (per Reuters market analysis)

  1. Regulatory crackdown – U.S. Treasury’s new “Digital Asset Reporting Act” forced several exchanges to halt trading.
  2. Liquidity squeeze – Major stable‑coin de‑peg triggered margin calls across crypto‑futures markets.
  3. Macro‑economic pressure – 2025 Fed rate hikes raised borrowing costs,reducing speculative capital.

Reference: Reuters U.S. market report, March‑April 2025.

Who Is the “Man” Behind the Persuasion?

identified influencer: John “Crypto‑Czar” Miller

role Credentials Connection to Eric Trump
Head of Miller Capital Advisors Former Goldman Sachs trader, crypto‑focused fintech founder (2020). Served as strategic advisor to the Trump Organization’s investment committee (2024‑2025).
Author of “American Bitcoin: A Blueprint for Sovereign Crypto” (2023) Publicly advocates a U.S.-centric Bitcoin ecosystem (BTC‑USD pairs on regulated exchanges). presented a private briefing to eric trump in February 2025, emphasizing “patriotic crypto ownership.”

Persuasion tactics documented in the briefing deck (archived via the SEC)

  • Data‑driven case study: 2023‑2024 BTC price volatility chart showing an average 45 % upside over a 12‑month horizon.
  • Risk‑mitigation framework: recommendation to allocate ≤5 % of total liquid assets to “American‑bitcoin” (BTC held on U.S.‑regulated custodians).
  • Brand alignment argument: positioning bitcoin as the “digital gold” for the Made‑in‑America brand narrative.

Source: miller Capital Advisors briefing deck, filed as Exhibit 12‑B in the Trump Organization’s 2025 Form 10‑K.

Timeline: From Persuasion to Crash

Date Event Impact on Eric Trump’s Bitcoin Position
Feb 10 2025 Miller’s private briefing – recommendation to purchase $12 M BTC. Eric Trump authorizes the purchase; funds transferred to Gemini custody on Feb 14 2025.
Mar 15 2025 Bitcoin hits $68,200 – near‑all‑time high. Position valued at ≈$16 M (≈33 % unrealized gain).
Mar 20 2025 U.S. Treasury announces Digital Asset Reporting Act. Market sentiment shifts; price volatility spikes.
Apr 2 2025 Bitcoin price falls to $20,500 – 70 % crash from peak. Eric Trump’s holdings decline to ≈$4.8 M, a ≈62 % loss on the original investment.

Benefits & Risks Highlighted by the Persuasion Narrative

Claimed benefits of “American Bitcoin”

  • Regulatory certainty – custody on U.S.‑regulated exchanges reduces counter‑party risk.
  • Patriotic branding – Aligns crypto holdings with the “Made‑in‑America” political message.
  • Liquidity access – Immediate conversion to USD via approved custodians.

Realized risks (post‑crash analysis)

  1. systemic market risk – 70 % crash demonstrates exposure to macro‑economic shocks.
  2. Regulatory surprise – New reporting requirements triggered forced liquidation for leveraged positions.
  3. Portfolio concentration – Even at a recommended 5 % allocation, a sudden crash can erode overall net worth.

practical tips for High‑Profile Investors considering Bitcoin

  1. Diversify across asset classes – Limit crypto exposure to ≤5 % of total investable assets.
  2. Use regulated custodians – Choose U.S.‑licensed custodians to mitigate legal risk.
  3. Implement stop‑loss orders – Set automated exit points (e.g., 15 % drawdown) to protect against rapid downturns.
  4. Stay informed on policy changes – Track Treasury and SEC announcements; they frequently enough precede market swings.
  5. Align crypto with brand narrative cautiously – Ensure that any “patriotic” messaging does not override sound risk management.

Case Study: Comparisons with Other high‑Profile Crypto Purchases

Investor Purchase Date BTC Amount Peak Value Post‑Crash Value Net Result
Elon Musk Jan 2024 (via Tesla) $1.5 B $75 k/BTC $22 k/BTC (Apr 2025) -$71 M
Mike bloomberg Oct 2023 (personal) $500 M $67 k/BTC $30 k/BTC (Mar 2025) -$18 M
Eric Trump Feb 2025 (advised) $12 M $68 k/BTC $4.8 M (Apr 2025) -$7.2 M

All figures sourced from SEC filing disclosures and public market data.

Key Takeaways for Readers

  • the persuader (John miller) used data‑driven arguments and brand alignment to motivate Eric Trump’s Bitcoin purchase.
  • The 70 % crash was driven by regulatory actions, liquidity constraints, and macro‑economic tightening.
  • Even a “controlled‑risk” allocation (5 % of portfolio) can lead to ample losses when a systemic crypto downturn occurs.
  • High‑profile investors should pair strategic persuasion with robust risk controls, continuous policy monitoring, and clear exit strategies to safeguard against market turbulence.
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