Tanzania’s Tightrope Walk: Can Samia Suluhu Hassan Deliver Democracy Beyond the Shadow of Magufuli?
With just months until the October 29, 2025, elections, Tanzania finds itself at a critical juncture. More than simply choosing a new government, Tanzanians are grappling with the very definition of their democracy. For the first time, the nation has the potential to elect its first female president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, but the path to a truly open and competitive political landscape remains fraught with challenges. The question isn’t just whether she can win, but whether the structures of power will allow a genuine victory.
From Succession to Scrutiny: The Weight of Expectations
Samia Suluhu Hassan’s ascent to the presidency in 2021 was born of tragedy, following the sudden death of John Magufuli. Initially greeted with a wave of hope, she promised a departure from her predecessor’s often authoritarian style – a pledge to restore political freedoms, heal societal divisions, and re-engage with the international community. Early actions, such as lifting bans on political rallies and reopening critical media outlets, signaled a potential shift. Her inclusive, diplomatic approach offered a stark contrast to Magufuli’s combative populism, particularly evident in her embrace of scientific guidance during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Illusion of Reform: A Democracy Under Pressure
However, the promise of genuine reform has largely failed to materialize. The run-up to the 2025 election has exposed a troubling reality: Tanzania’s democratic space remains severely constrained. Opposition leaders face politically motivated arrests, parties are disqualified on technicalities, and dissenting voices are systematically silenced. The exclusion of CHADEMA, the leading opposition party, and the treason charges leveled against its leader, Tundu Lissu, are stark examples of this repression. This isn’t merely a crackdown; it’s a carefully calibrated strategy to maintain the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM)’s decades-long grip on power.
Electoral Authoritarianism: The New Normal?
Analysts are increasingly describing Tanzania’s political system as exhibiting characteristics of electoral authoritarianism – a system where elections are held, but the outcome is largely predetermined. The CCM, the party of Tanzania’s founding father, Julius Nyerere, leverages its control over state resources, security forces, and the media to ensure its continued dominance. Magufuli’s authoritarian playbook hasn’t disappeared; it’s simply been refined, becoming more subtle but no less effective.
Development and Legitimacy: Whose Vision is it Anyway?
President Samia strategically emphasizes infrastructure projects – ports, railways, and industrial parks – as evidence of her leadership and commitment to economic progress. Yet, the origins of many of these initiatives lie with Magufuli. This raises a crucial question: can Samia successfully rebrand continuity as progress and claim ownership of these developments? For many Tanzanians, the attribution of these projects is less important than their tangible impact on local communities – the creation of jobs, improved access to services, and increased prosperity. If Samia fails to deliver on these fronts, she risks being perceived as merely a caretaker of her predecessor’s legacy.
Navigating Identity Politics: A Woman in a Man’s World
Samia’s identity as a Muslim woman from Zanzibar carries both symbolic weight and inherent challenges. She represents Tanzania’s diversity, a powerful image in a patriarchal society. However, this same diversity exposes her to identity politics, potentially exacerbating tensions between the mainland and Zanzibar and triggering societal biases related to gender and religion. Her ability to transcend these divides and forge a national identity that embraces inclusivity will be pivotal to her success – and to the future of Tanzanian democracy.
The Future of Tanzanian Democracy: A Precarious Balance
The 2025 elections present Tanzanians with a difficult choice. They can opt for the stability and familiarity of the CCM, or take a gamble on a fragmented and weakened opposition. The imbalance of power is undeniable, and the shrinking space for genuine political competition is deeply concerning. The tragedy lies in the fact that the *forms* of democracy remain, while the *freedom* to exercise that democracy is increasingly curtailed. The long-term implications extend beyond Tanzania’s borders, potentially influencing democratic trends across East Africa.
Ultimately, whether Samia Suluhu Hassan can truly step out of Magufuli’s shadow will be determined not by rhetoric, but by the historical record. She has demonstrated glimpses of independence, but remains entangled in a political system that prioritizes control over accountability. The coming months will be a defining moment for Tanzania, a test of its commitment to democratic principles, and a crucial indicator of whether the nation’s long-awaited democratic dawn will finally break.
What are your predictions for the future of democracy in Tanzania? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
