The Michigan Wolverines are entering the College Football Playoff for the second straight year after another undefeated regular season. Their semi-final opponent, the TCU Horned Frogs make their first appearance in the top 4 after a 12-1 season.
The Horned Frogs have a habit of recovering late in the game and using their explosive offense to dominate the opposition. This match, however, will be their toughest test yet. The Michigan team is incredibly physical and likes to impose their will on their opponents with a dreaded ground game that opens up passing opportunities for emerging quarterback JJ McCarthy.
These two teams are devastating in the second half, but what scenario will play out for the other team to win this semi-final?
Let’s look at the odds first and then give our best TCU vs Michigan bet for the Fiesta Bowl:
TCU vs. Michigan odds, spread and total
TCU vs Michigan Betting Trends
- Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is 3-5 ATS (ATS) in bowl games with the team.
- TCU coach Sonny Dykes is 2-2 ATS in bowl games.
- Michigan is 8-5 ATS this season
- TCU is 8-3-1 ATS this season, 2-1 as an underdog.
TCU vs Michigan – Prediction and Picks
I analyzed this match in detail in The Early Reed with ESPN College GameDay’s Chris “Bear” Fallica, which you can find below.
TCU’s 3-3-5 defense has been able to contain teams on a regular basis, but it’s just an average defense that will struggle to slow Michigan’s offense led by running back Donovan Edwards. The latter took the lion’s share of the regular season and Big Ten championship finals, replacing Heisman contender Blake Corum, who is out for that game with a knee injury. Edwards ran for a total of 401 yards and three touchdowns on 47 touches.
On the other side, TCU’s offense was as dangerous as any team in the country, ranked in the top 25 in explosive rate of play and 10th in yards per play. The team scored average more than 40 points per game in the regular season and will look to outplay Michigan’s defense which has been in the nails all season, third in EPA/Play.
Both teams are known for their second-half performances. While each attack is fearsome, they come off late in the game. Michigan is averaging 18.5 points per game in the first half, 18th in the nation, while TCU is 23rd with 18.2 points. However, both numbers increase in the second half, as the Wolverines are second in the nation, averaging over 21 points per game, and TCU is seventh in the nation.
Michigan is playing at a slower pace than other teams in terms of plays per minute and might want to relax in this game and not look to engage in a run against TCU’s explosive offense. Not to mention, Michigan has the third-best red-zone touchdown defense in the nation, allowing six touchdowns on fewer than 38 percent of red-zone attempts.
I think we’ll see a slow start for each team before the game opens in the second half, which leads me to the inferior first half in the Fiesta Bowl.
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The odds of the games are updated periodically and are subject to change.