Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Money Market Strategist, Capital Market BankKrung Thai revealed that bahtopened this morning (26 Jan) at 32.72 baht per dollar “appreciating” from the previous day’s close at 32.83 baht per dollar, looking framedbaht today expected to be at the level of 32.60-32.85 baht per dollar
forbaht trend view that the depreciation of the dollar and gold profit taking transaction flow After the price of gold rose near the resistance zone, it was the factor that helped the baht appreciate last night.
Today, we estimate that bahtThe US dollar is likely to move sideways as most market players are waiting for the US PCE inflation report tomorrow. However, we should be wary of volatility during the US GDP report in Q4 and welfare claims data. unemployment Because if the picture of the US economy came out better than expected May help the dollar to rebound somewhat.
In addition, if the market turns around, open to risk. from better-than-expected earnings reports of listed companies It may pressure the price of gold to decline. in which case If the price of gold falls near the support zone, we see that Most of the players in the market are still waiting to gradually buy gold in the declining moment. As a result, such transaction flows may pressure the baht to fluctuate on the weaker side as well. However, we still view the key resistance zone of the baht in the range of 32.90-33.00 baht per dollar. While the key support zone is still in the range of 32.50-32.60 baht per dollar. until the market recognizes more new factors
side playerUS stock marketStill in a cautious state and not daring to move forward with exposure to risks, resulting in the Nasdaq tech stock index falling -0.18%, while the S&P500 index closed -0.02%. The performance of listed companies may come out poor. After many companies this week For example, big tech companies like Microsoft have reported worse-than-expected recent earnings. Along with giving a view of the future earnings trend that is worse than the market expected as well That sentiment led analysts to expect profits for companies listed on the S&P500 in the fourth quarter to drop -3%y/y, worse than their forecast of -1.6%. y/y at the beginning of the year
In Europe, the STOXX600 Index continued to decline -0.29% amid concerns that listed companies’ earnings could be worse than expected, as was the case in the United States. of the European Central Bank (ECB) is still an important factor that pressures players in the European stock market to become more open to risk in the short term.
in the currency market The greenback turned weaker against major currencies, with the dollar index (DXY) recently dropping to 101.6 points as market players continued to assess that The Fed will delay accelerating interest rates next week at the same time. Concerns about the earnings prospects of listed companies in the US side. is another factor that makes Investing in assets like US stocks is less attractive. compared to investments in other regions (Analysts revised earnings forecasts for China and Hong Kong stock markets continued to improve. while expecting earnings in the US side However, the cautiousness of market players, coupled with the decline in both the US dollar and the 10-year bond yield, has resulted in gold prices (comex gold contracts for delivery in July) wed) can rebound up from the support zone to the resistance zone around 1,950 dollars per ounce again, which we see Rising near the resistance zone of the price of gold. May cause market players to gradually sell and profit from the rebound of gold prices. Such transaction flows contributed to the appreciation of the baht last night.
For today, market players will wait to follow the trend of the US economy through the Q4 GDP report, which the market estimates that in Q4 the US economy will rise. May grow +2.6% from the previous quarter. year on year But it was a slowdown in the economy from growing +3.2% in the third quarter, reflecting the impact of the Fed’s continued interest rate hike. Including the pressure from the global economic slowdown.
In addition, market players will wait to keep an eye on the direction of the US labor market. through the report on the number of applicants for initial jobless benefits (Initial Jobless Claims) and the number of applicants for continuous jobless claims (Continuing Jobless Claims) after the latest many private companies especially companies in the Tech group Has gradually reduced employment to 8.4 thousand positions since the beginning of this year.
and in addition to the aforementioned economic data reports Market players will wait for earnings reports of listed companies. which if most of the earnings reports come out better than expected It may help to turn the atmosphere in the financial markets to be more open to risk.