The Bank of Canada should not change its key rate

2023-10-23 01:35:30

Observers expect that the Bank of Canada will not increase its key rate on Wednesday because of the economic slowdown and a slight decline in inflation.

In September, the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1%. It had increased by 0.4% the previous month.

The central bank kept its key rate at 5% last month, but, still worried about pressure on prices, it opened the door to further increases.

“Economic data has been hot and cold since the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its key rate in September, but we expect an increase to be unlikely given the current situation,” RBC deputy chief economist Nathan Janzen and economist Claire Fan pointed out in a note sent to clients on Friday.

The CPI experienced increases in July and August while measures of core inflation excluding transitory variations in inflation have not declined much in recent months.

The September drop should help to alleviate some concerns caused by price growth in the country. The CPI ultimately rose to 3.8%.

“We breathed a sigh of relief after the release of the latest inflation data,” said CIBC Managing Director and Senior Economist Andrew Grantham. Data indicates that inflation has slowed. This factor, like the poor economic growth we have witnessed, should convince the Bank of Canada to maintain its key rate, not just for this month, but also through to the end of the year and even into beginning of the next year. »

The Canadian economy stagnated during the second quarter. Economists expect this slowdown to continue through the end of the year and into early 2024.

The recent Business Outlook Survey does not contradict this trend. They “expect their sales growth to be moderate over the next 12 months,” notes the Bank of Canada.

Job

The job market does not appear to be as strong as in 2022. The number of unfilled positions has fallen while the unemployment rate has exceeded 5.5%.

Statistics Canada reported Friday that retail sales fell 0.1% last August in the country, to $66.1 billion, as sales at new and used car dealerships declined during the month.

Rising interest rates are expected to continue to impact the Canadian economy, with more households having to renew their mortgages at a higher rate and more consumers avoiding spending.

“Less than 50% of Canadian mortgage borrowers have been exposed to higher interest rates,” warns Mr. Grantham.

A majority of economists expect that the economic slowdown and tighter financial conditions will eventually push inflation down to 2%.

Mr. Grantham believes the Bank of Canada should start asking itself when it will start reducing its key rate.

Geopolitical uncertainty

Uncertainty has increased since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, which threatens to destabilize the entire Middle East.

“What we are seeing globally is that inflationary risks have increased. There is the Middle East which risks igniting. Wars cause inflation. We can’t escape,” recalls Mr. Grantham.

Central banks know this only too well: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 greatly contributed to the initial escalation of inflation.

The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, judges that it is still too early to say whether the conflict will have repercussions on the global economy.

“It’s much too early to tell. And it really depends on how much the situation escalates,” Macklem said.

The Bank of Canada is also expected to release its Monetary Policy Reportwhich contains a reference scenario for inflation and growth of the Canadian economy.