The WTO has clarified its forecast for world trade growth this year. On Tuesday in Geneva, she said she expected a 3% increase, compared to 4.7% expected before the war in Ukraine. She is worried about agreements at the June ministerial in Geneva.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) leaked a range between 2.4 and 3% on Monday evening. On Tuesday, she unveiled an estimate that takes the top of it. But “these figures could be revised due to the uncertainty” linked to the war in Ukraine.
Merchandise trade growth could vary from 0.5 to more than 5% as the situation is volatile. The impact of this conflict will be felt “all over the world”, especially for access to food products in poor countries, said the director general of the organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Supply is threatened and inflation is rising.
Decline expected in Russia
A total of 35 African countries import food products from Russia and Ukraine. Recently, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala had called on States that rely on surplus security food stocks to put them on the market if they can.
The region, which includes Russia and Ukraine in particular, is expected to face a 12% drop in its imports and a 7.9% drop in its GDP. But exports are expected to increase by nearly 5% due to reliance on Russian energy.
Another problem is that trade in services will also be affected by the conflict in Ukraine. Russia is a net importer on this issue. Another indication, last year, the volume of goods increased by 9.8% and 26% in value, adds the WTO.
Expected at 3.4% for next year
In addition to the war, confinements in China due to the pandemic are again disrupting maritime trade, according to the institution. More broadly, “the last few years have been tumultuous” for the economy and world trade, the director general told the press.
For 2023, world trade growth is now expected at 3.4%. For its part, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.8% this year, down 1.3 points from previous estimates, after increasing by nearly 6% last year.
These figures are also of concern to the Director General for their possible effect on the very important ministerial in June in Geneva. Dr Ngozi particularly wants agreements on three areas, those of the response to the pandemic, agriculture and subsidies for overfishing. “I can’t promise success” on all those components, she said.
“There is no doubt that the war has increased tensions” and “the environment is highly uncertain”, according to her. In the event of additional sanctions, in particular an energy embargo against Russia, “the threat is real” for the ministerial and “we will have to see how it affects our work”, affirmed Dr Ngozi.
Currently, negotiations are conducted in small groups. Many Western countries and other players have said that they will no longer honor WTO rules with regard to Russia. Moscow is widely boycotted by dozens of actors.
Calls on States to collaborate
And Dr Ngozi to call for collaboration despite the tensions. The organization “can play a central role” in peacefully discussing differences, she said. Efforts must continue, she said. In particular on the response of world trade to the pandemic for which Switzerland is opposed to a provisional lifting of patents on technologies against the coronavirus.
On fishing, the States are seeking an arrangement after more than 20 years of negotiations on subsidies, estimated at up to 54 billion dollars per year. The objective is to prohibit those for a vessel that conducts illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing. But also those for overfishing in areas already overused.
According to the UN, 90% of marine stocks are exploited or overexploited. A third of the catch is linked to overfishing. Wealthy states want China not to be able to rely on exceptions because of its self-declared status as a developing country.
In a draft agreement, exemptions are provided for poor countries and developing countries with a low volume of fishing. As well as measures to limit the use of forced labor, enough to try to satisfy everyone. But developing states find it favorable to rich countries.
This article has been published automatically. Source: ats