2023-10-13 03:09:00
It is estimated that October inflation would be reduced to 9.5%, below that of September which showed 12.7%, according to forecasts reported by consultants to the Central Bank. However, they projected that the year will close with more than 180% inflation.
The survey included the perspectives of 24 local and international consulting firms and research centers, and 12 financial entities in Argentina.
In it ninth survey of the yearanalysts estimated monthly inflation of 9.5% for October and inflation for the entire year of 180.7%, 11.4 points higher than the previous survey.
For the Government, inflation rose 2.3% in the first week of October and “the decline in the monthly rhythm is consolidated”
Those who best predicted this variable in the past (TOP-10) expected inflation of 9.4% for October and 183.8% year-on-year for 2023. Likewise, they expect 10.7% for November and 14% for December.
Regarding the Core CPI, REM participants placed their forecasts for 2023 at 187.5%.
For September, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the REM survey suggested an inflation of 11.7% monthly, while the data observed in that month was 12.7% (1.1 percentage points higher than predicted by the REM).
In the September survey, REM analysts projected for 2023 a level of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2.8% lower than the 2022 average, improving the outlook by 0.14 pp compared to the previous survey.
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This improvement is concentrated in the third quarter, a period for which participants reduced their outlook for quarterly GDP contraction without seasonality by 1 point.
Meanwhile, those who best predicted this variable in the past projected, on average, a reduction of 2.7% in the year.
Inflation projections for 2024 and 2025
For 2024, all REM participants estimated a new average contraction of 1.2%, which implied a deterioration of 0.6 points compared to the previous survey.
In that framework, for 2024they expect annual inflation to be 135,4%and to 2025of 52,2%.
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