Washington (CNN) — The United States and NATO believe that Belarus could “soon” join Russia in its war Against Ukraine, US and NATO officials told CNN, and that the country is already taking steps to do so.
Belarus is increasingly “likely” to enter the conflict, a NATO military official said on Monday. “(Russian President Vladimir) Putin needs support. Anything would help,” the official explained.
A Belarusian opposition source said the country’s combat units are ready to enter Ukraine as soon as the next few days, with thousands of troops ready to deploy. In the opinion of this source, this would have less military than geopolitical impact, given the implications of another country joining the war.
A senior NATO intelligence official said separately that the alliance assesses that the Belarusian government “is preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine.”
Russia has launched attacks on Ukraine partly from Belarusian territory, and thousands of Russian troops amassed in Belarus ahead of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine last month, which the two countries had claimed was for training exercises. . US and European sanctions in response to the war have targeted Russian and Belarusian officials, including Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Belarus amended its constitution last month to allow the country to host both Russian forces and nuclear weapons permanently, though US officials stress they have yet to see any evidence that Russia has moved nuclear weapons or is preparing to do so. .
The sources stressed that there had been no indication to date that Belarus was participating in the fighting in Ukraine, with a senior US defense official saying the Pentagon had seen “no indication that the Belarusians are preparing to enter Ukraine.” or that they have reached some agreement to do so”.
The NATO military official said that the final decision for Belarus’s participation in the war has yet to be made in Moscow and so far there has been no indication that Belarusian forces are taking part in the fighting in Ukraine.
“This is not about what Lukashenko wants,” the official explained. “The question is: does Putin want another unstable country in the region?”
“Getting involved would destabilize Belarus,” the official said.
The official declined to detail how Belarus might intervene in the war, but said it made sense for Russia to try to cut off NATO military aid reaching Ukraine from its western border.
— CNN’s Jennifer Hansler and Jeremy Herb contributed to this report.