2023-08-16 03:30:00
All attempts in the traditional parties to come up with a narrative that allows them to generate expectations failed.
The surprising triumph achieved in the primaries by the presidential candidate for La Libertad Avanza, Javier Milei, exposed much more than the boredom of a majority sector of society.
The victory of this steppenwolf who promises to end the political “caste” validated a drama that, perhaps, until now underestimated in the public debate: the inability of the leadership to guarantee representativeness.
Milei swept, won in 16 provinces, driven by an electorate that ignored party identifications, and obtained more than 30% of the total votes in the Paso, in which participation did not reach 70%.
With his messages addressed to the “good Argentine”, the libertarian provocateur channeled the clamor of that “silent majority” that usually drives the “angry vote” in times of discouragement.
But the dimension of the Milei phenomenon is also explained because all the attempts in the traditional parties to come up with a narrative that allows them to generate expectations failed.
Some samples of this disconnection came to light during the banners that were carried out against the extensive quarantine that the government of Alberto Fernández imposed to try to minimize the impact of the coronavirus.
Las Paso revealed that this drama equally hit the official coalition Union for the Fatherland (UP) and the opposition Together for Change (JPC), but also to the Left Front and to those who tried to propose alternatives outside the crack.
JPC garnered 28.27% of the total votes, just one point more than an officialism that is going through serious problems on the pressing economic front and that cannot get out of the inflation trap.
In other words, the opposition failed to capitalize on the bad moment of a cornered Peronism and even got fewer votes than in the 2019 primaries, when Mauricio Macri reaped 31.8% in the search for his frustrated re-election, also, due to the adverse results on the economic front.
Another element that validates the dilemma of the party structures is the one referred to the harsh defeat faced by the head of the Buenos Aires government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who in the last two years has devoted himself to building a broad army in partnership with the most representative referents of the UCR, led by Gerardo Morales himself, and the Civic Coalition, with the explicit blessing of its founder Elisa Carrió.
Rodríguez Larreta lost the internship by more than five points difference against a Patricia Bullrich who, in tune with Milei, ignored the manuals of political correctness.
Rodríguez Larreta did not have the visibility of leading the City of Buenos Aires, the historical epicenter of anti-Peronism, nor the support of the main partners of the opposition coalition.
And he was left in a more than uncomfortable situation, because in his presidential race he even chose to challenge his mentor Mauricio Macri to overcome the contradictions of the first Cambiemos government.
The polls made it possible to outline the true particularities of the next presidential contest, which could be resolved in a second round.
But there are also multiple unknowns to be resolved in an Argentina that is still unpredictable. For example, it is worth wondering if Milei will have the capacity to strengthen the commitment of that rabid electorate that even ignored the alerts surrounding his most controversial proposals, such as the closure of the Central Bank, the dollarization of the economy and the “chainsaw” plan to apply an even greater State adjustment than the one demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
It will also be necessary to see if the JPC front, With Bullrich at the helm, he manages to achieve surpassing slogans to gain volume, or if the fear of the possibility that a government more aligned with the right will take over installs an opportunity for Sergio Massa to twist his meager destiny.
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