2024-03-17 13:00:12
The problems the Russian army has in Ukraine are much bigger than losing tanks. (Epoch Times Cartography)
[The Epoch Times, March 17, 2024]In today’s society, the role of weapons and the military has been given a deeper meaning than killing. Strong military power is often used as a deterrent to maintain world peace and human security. The war, though it became covert, never ceased.[Current Affairs and Military]takes you to the front to see clearly the details and truth of the battle between good and evil.
The Russian military has suffered heavy losses in casualties and equipment during the past two years of all-out war, but the bigger problem may be the catastrophic impact the loss of thousands of officers will have on the military, which will lead to the Russian Federation’s inability to maintain its overall operations in the Ukraine war. Rhythm.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned into the continent’s deadliest war since World War II. Hundreds of thousands of casualties have been reported between Kiev and Moscow, making it the costliest war for both warring sides since the Iran-Iraq War.
Although Ukraine, which relies heavily on Western aid, has encountered difficulties with ammunition shortages, the United States and the West have not changed their policy of supporting Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression, and military assistance to Ukraine is showing signs of recovery.
On March 12, the Pentagon announced the latest US$300 million special assistance package to Ukraine. Meanwhile, House Republican leadership appears to be changing gears and officially prioritizing further aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters on Thursday (March 14) that bills to further fund Ukraine’s defense and Israel’s military operations against Hamas will be introduced separately in the coming weeks.
It was the clearest statement on a multi-billion-dollar foreign aid package since the U.S. suspended military aid to Ukraine, a plan that has been stalled in Congress for weeks. It was Johnson’s clearest statement yet on his commitment to a House vote on the Ukraine aid package, even though Johnson’s own Republican Party has not seemed very interested in it before. This means that it may only be a matter of time before the United States and the West provide tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine.
If the war does not stop because Western aid is cut off and Ukraine’s war resources are depleted, will it stop because of huge losses in equipment and personnel that Russia cannot afford?
Some speculate that at the current rate of attrition of the Russian military, the war may only last a few months. The Russian military may soon have to cease military operations due to the loss of all its most capable units, including heavy weaponry, special forces, elite naval infantry and large numbers of officers.
Ahead of a full-scale invasion in 2022, Russian special forces, such as officers from the Special Forces of the Russian General Staff Intelligence Service (GRU Spetsnaz), have been involved in fighting in Ukraine since 2014. From 2014 to 2022, these officers suffered minimal casualties in the Donbas war and accumulated rich war experience, but the full-scale invasion in February 2022 allowed the Russians to experience the deadliest battle in all conflicts since World War II.
Both U.S. and British intelligence agencies have confirmed that total casualties among Russian combatants exceed at least 300,000. As of March 15, figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense show that Russian military casualties have exceeded 428,000. Although it has not been confirmed by an authoritative third party, it basically reflects the cruelty of war.
The war forced the Kremlin to deploy troops from other major theaters and even from within Russia, surrounding areas and overseas to fill the most hotly contested battlefields such as Bakhmut and Afdievka. These battlefields consumed important resources of the entire Russian invasion force in different areas along the entire line. Manpower.
As of early March 2024, Russian army officers had lost more than 3,700 officers, and the average interval between deaths was only about 5 hours. The blog team “Killed in Ukraine”, based in the Czech Republic, counts the loss of Russian officers by tracking their anniversaries and funerals. The blog team confirmed that as of March 8, 2024, the losses of Russian military officers at different ranks are: 7 generals (1 general and 6 lieutenant generals), 90 colonels, 220 lieutenant colonels, 420 majors, 627 captains, 1,010 senior lieutenants, 700 lieutenants and 130 junior lieutenants.
Judging from the current casualties of Russian officers on the battlefield, in two years of total war, the average life span of junior commanders, field commanders and senior commanders on the battlefield is very short. More than 750 days have passed since the total war. During this period, the interval between the deaths of colonel officers was about 8 days, the interval between the death of lieutenant colonel officers was less than 3 days, and the interval between major and captain officers was about 1 to 2 days.
In addition, the most serious impact on the Russian army is the lack of leadership at the grassroots level, especially the fact that the Russian army does not have the rank of non-commissioned officer (NCO). In the U.S. military, noncommissioned officers include Army and Marine Corps corporals, Air Force staff sergeants, and Navy petty officers. They are the most trusted experts at the base of the unit. They are responsible for carrying out the officers’ battlefield instructions and caring for the troops. They are free to carry out the orders in their own way. .
However, the Russians seem to have been stuck in the old command model. They implement a condescending and top-heavy command method, which is especially unsuitable for modern active and dynamic battlefields. The practice of Western armies has proven that noncommissioned officers are the core leadership of small units and are crucial to grassroots units. Many militaries, including the Chinese Communist Party, are trying to copy this model. The Russian army, without NCOs, lacks battlefield initiative and even struggles. Along with casualties among lower-level and field commanders, Russian soldiers often disappeared without clear instructions, leading to confused communication and a lack of trust among their comrades.
The British Ministry of Defense stated that Russia’s combat effectiveness and force projection have been set back by at least 10 years as a result of the invasion of Ukraine. The massive attrition of the Russian officer corps and the lack of non-commissioned officers are seriously affecting key battlefield decisions and combat objectives, especially after Russia has fallen into a continuous war of attrition. Without the necessary planning and a steady stream of logistical supplements, Russia’s war will eventually collapse ability.
The Russian military has been depleting stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons to address supply issues on the battlefield in Ukraine. Western analysts believe that with Russia’s arms inventory bottoming out, if the West promises to continue and expand military assistance to Ukraine, the Russian army may eventually be defeated within the foreseeable time.
In recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed strategic arms and space talks in exchange for a pause in the fighting in Ukraine. While hard-liners in Russia continue to demand Ukraine’s surrender, some moderate Russian officials advocate a ceasefire or at least a reduction in the intensity of the war while maintaining control of occupied Ukrainian territory. One explanation for the subtle change in Western attitudes toward the Kremlin is that Russia’s weapons stockpiles inherited from the former Soviet Union continue to be depleted. As these warfighting resources are depleted, Moscow may lose its offensive potential by 2025.
Soviet-era weapons stockpiles are the main reason why the Russian military has been able to continue fighting even after suffering huge losses. Russia has been drawing tanks, armored vehicles and artillery from these stocks during the two years of war. A considerable part of them are weapons produced from the 1940s to the 1960s and have returned to the battlefield in the form of repairs or spare parts.
Although Russia retained tens of thousands of tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and artillery after 1991, these inventories were limited and some were non-renewable. If Ukraine maintains a high level of combat intensity, Russia’s losses will continue to increase in 2024, and the Russian military’s ability to sustain an offensive will be exhausted by 2025.
According to the 2021-2023 Military Balance Comparison of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), an annual assessment of military capabilities and defense economics, the Russian military has seen a significant decline in heavy weapons systems in almost all categories. Taking main battle tanks as an example, in 2021, Russia’s inventory of main battle tanks of various periods from T-55 to T-90 totaled about 17,500 units, and by the end of 2023, there would only be about 5,000 units left. Various infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers will drop from approximately 15,500 vehicles in 2021 to approximately 11,000 vehicles in 2023. Of course, this decline is not necessarily entirely down to battlefield attrition, but what is happening is obvious. Russia is taking more and more weapons from its inventory. This is already an irreversible process.
Although the existing weapons reserves can still continue to support Russia’s aggression, some weapons that have entered the cemetery may also be restored to combat status and put into the battlefield from the storage base, but ultimately it depends on whether these resources can play a role in the war and How effective it is. Russia’s war capabilities are becoming increasingly limited and are being depleted at an alarming rate.
Until this expected attrition results in the depletion of Russian military resources, Russian military operations in the Ukrainian battlefield are likely to be more difficult than in other unstable areas such as diplomacy, economics, and military industry. Therefore, the final outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may depend on whether the United States and the West’s commitment to arms assistance to Ukraine can be fulfilled. Russia certainly knows the stakes in Ukraine continuing to receive Western aid, but the Kremlin’s renewed attempt to use nuclear threats to force the United States and the West to abandon Ukraine may be just the opposite.
Written by: Xia Luoshan (reporter of “The Epoch Times”, who has experienced military life for more than ten years, mainly engaged in military teaching and some technical management work)
Produced by: Current Affairs Military Production Team
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