The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) released the estimates of the Market Expectations Survey (REM) on how much the dollar will reach by the end of the year. They are the forecasts of the main private consultants on the evolution of the dollar, inflation, interest rates and growth among other variables.
Of these variables, in addition to inflation, the dollar. REM analysts revised their projections for the wholesale nominal exchange rate upwards. They expect the exchange rate to reach $167.16 in December 2022, that is, 62.8% more than at the end of 2021.
Those who more accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons projected that the average nominal exchange rate for December 2022 would be $167.57, which represents a rise of 63.2% in the year.
The monthly average wholesale nominal exchange rate on business days was $128.45 per dollar in July 2022.
The forecast of those who respond to the REM indicates a monthly rise of $7 per dollar to $135.49 per dollar in August 2022. Regarding the previous survey, upward corrections were evidenced in the following months.
For their part, the projection of the analysts for December 2022 was $167.16 per dollar (+$7.57 per dollar compared to the previous survey). Thus, the variation in the nominal exchange rate forecast by REM participants is 64.1% yoy for December.
Retail Dollar Quote
The Central Bank sold this Friday US$95 million, and closed the first week of August with landslides of some US$700 million. In this context, the dollar today -without taxes- rose 3 cents to $139.89, according to the average in the main entities of the financial system, while in the Banco Nación the note was quoted at $138.75 for sale.
If you look at the exchange market since December 10, 2019, the BCRA maintains a buying position for regarding two billion. For this same date in 2020, the first week of August, the BCRA had sold US$2.6 billion compared to December 10 of the previous year.
If the first week of August 2022 is compared to the BCRA’s foreign exchange market position in the first week of 2020, today it is more than US$4.5 billion higher.
“Demand destined to pay for energy and fuel imports maintained a significant role throughout the week, largely justifying the sacrifice of reserves that the Central Bank had to make at the beginning of the month,” Gustavo Quintana assured.
“For next week, the implementation of the measures announced by the new economic authorities is expected as an element that changes the current scenario and allows the increase in genuine supply to dissipate the tension that the exchange market is exhibiting today,” he added. .
Source: Scope
The blue dollar recorded its second consecutive fall of the weekhttps://t.co/mjqRDHbyNt pic.twitter.com/TlTUVPCC1J
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