2023-08-09 13:11:00
The Central Bank (CB) will either take a break or raise the key rate by another 25 basis points, that is, up to 8.75%, which will affect loans. This was stated in an interview with URA.RU by the head of the “Finance and Economics” direction of the Institute of Contemporary Development, political scientist, economist Nikita Maslennikov.
“In my opinion, two scenarios are equally likely. This is either a pause in the rate hike, or a slight increase of 25 basis points. If today we have a key rate of the Central Bank of 8.5%, then it will be 8.75%. But this is still very conditional, because the entire predictive composition of factors that will influence decision-making has not yet been fully formed. Nevertheless, we see a continuing rise in inflationary pressures. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank itself, if you look at the average annual values for the key rate, it is impossible to exclude the continuation of the increase during this year. Will it be in September, will it be at the end of the year? So far, the trend is pointing to a rate hike,” Nikita Maslennikov explained.
In an interview with URA.RU, Vyacheslav Putilovsky, junior director for banking ratings at Expert RA, financial analyst, noted that the key rate of the Central Bank could rise to 9%. “I expect an increase of about 0.5%, that is, most likely up to 9%. This will affect the Russians first of all by the rise in the cost of bank financing and the gradual growth of both rates for attracting deposits and loans. The previous promotion has not yet been played, so it must be played first. That is, growth will not be very high relative to the current one,” he stressed.
According to Maslennikov, the Russians, who keep their money on deposits, will benefit from the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank. “If the cycle of raising the key rate continues, then, naturally, there will be an increase in interest rates on loans, an increase in the cost of consumer lending, car loans, and mortgages. But on the other hand, those who intend to save and continue to work with banks, keeping their funds on deposits, will benefit, because deposit rates have grown significantly. The average for ten large banks exceeds 8%,” he said.
Earlier, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin admitted that by September the key rate will rise. In July, it rose from 7.5% to 8.5%.
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