2023-05-19 01:36:12
According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on May 19, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.0356, a depreciation of 389 basis points.
The US dollar index rose significantly on the 18th. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.68% on the day to close at 103.5793 in late New York trading.
The People’s Bank of China conducted a 2 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation today, and the winning bid rate was 2.00%, which was the same as before.
Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that looking forward to the future, as the Fed’s current round of interest rate hikes enters the final stage, coupled with the impact of the banking crisis, the downward pressure on the US economy will further increase, and it is unlikely that the US dollar index will continue to rise in the later period. big. In addition, the current domestic US dollar deposit interest rate has entered the top range, and the probability of further rise is very small; and with the continuous recovery of the domestic economy, the recovery of various market interest rates, including the RMB deposit interest rate, is a general trend. From this point of view, the current situation of low settlement rate and high sales rate is difficult to sustain, and the trend of RMB exchange rate in the later period will return to the dominance of fundamentals. With the overseas economy down this year and the domestic economy continuing to recover, there is no room for the RMB to depreciate. From this point of view, the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar “breaking 7” this time is more the result of normal fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Next, the regulatory authorities may guide market expectations appropriately and prevent the “herd effect” in the foreign exchange market by strengthening market communication and other means. Excessive concentration, but there is little need to intervene through policy means in the short term.
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