2023-10-14 18:13:04
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While the UN is talking about climate collapse, the International Energy Agency is asking countries to bring forward their environmental timetable: the objectives set for greenhouse gas emissions must be achieved, between 2030 and 2050 at the latest, that is to say, almost tomorrow. If the major powers do not double their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the critical threshold of +1.5°C of global warming will be reached by 2040 according to the latest IPCC report.
The current political trajectory lacks realism and cooperation
The economic problems of such a revolution are worrying, and rightly so. Because we are far from ready, believes Luc Désiré Omgba, professor of economics at the University of Lorraine and researcher at the Bureau of Theoretical and Applied Economics (Beta): “ The share of fossil fuels in the energy mix is 82%. We cannot therefore move overnight to a total transition to sustainable energies. This requires a spread, but also a diagnosis of the present period. Demand for oil is expected to increase globally, as is demand for coal, the most polluting energy source.
We thought we had peaked in coal demand in 2014, and we realize that there is a further increase. This raises concerns that the current trajectory is not realistic in relation to the current situation. As a result, we wonder if the speeches will not change, or if the same speeches are maintained, if we are not going to do something other than what is planned, without saying anything, with new investments in energy fossils ».
Are investments and infrastructures up to the challenges?
Behind this rather alarming observation of political measures linked to the energy transition, facts which must question: “ Demographics are increasing, so demand is increasing. But politics has also missed a certain number of things in recent years: there is not enough investment in renewable energies and the infrastructure is not up to standard. Renewable is progressing, but non-renewable is also progressing! »
With a view to creating this new economic world, not all countries play the same role: “ France and the countries of the European Union are consumers of fossil fuels, but there are also exporting countries: everyone is playing their own part and there is not enough cooperation.. For some countries, the transition will be long and complicated: “ Saudi Arabia derives 70% of its export revenue from fossil fuels, and it is almost 100% for Iraq. We have noticed recently that, as soon as the price of oil falls, Saudi Arabia reduces its production and prices then start to rise again. These exporting countries form alliances, which makes them powerful and binding, it is a worrying situation such as that of “Prisoner’s Dilemma” the outcome of which we know in the absence of cooperation”, specifies the researcher.
“Everyone plays their own part and there is not enough cooperation”
Despite its good intentions, France cannot play in isolation
To what extent can very ambitious measures for the most polluting countries disrupt the world economy, and in particular that of France? “ France is putting good things in place, but it cannot play in isolation. The other countries will continue and will then be more competitive. In a situation like this, France cannot get out of it alone. Policy must be in line with global reality,” explains Luc Désiré Omgba.
Because despite all the criticisms that the French like to make of their own country, and often rightly so, “ France is in the Top 10 countries making the most efforts for the energy transition, in a ranking by the World Economic Forum which includes 115 countries”. Despite this continued approach in favor of renewable energies, 43% of the energy consumed by the French comes from oil and gas. “ Depriving yourself of 43%, it takes time,” specifies the researcher.
The most powerful countries determine the composition of the energy mix
However, the big problem that the world is increasingly facing is the lack of international cooperation, according to Luc Désiré Omgba. “ During meetings at the UN, everyone has their own speech, we are seeing more and more blockages on each side. It is no longer a space for discussion, the same goes for the COPs, the next COP 28 of which will be held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12. The price of oil is determined by Saudi Arabia, countries like China and India have more weight and determine the ceiling price, and behind the European Union and France are just watching the discussion. The price is fixed, and France can’t do much about it.” and from there, what makes up the energy mix is also fixed. The direct consequence of the composition of this energy mix is obviously the impact on the climate through the greater or lesser presence of fossil fuels and renewable energies.
In fine, the global economy will only be ready to face the energy transition if global cooperation is put in place. If this is not the case, the countries which make the most efforts risk being disadvantaged, while letting the most powerful continue to sell and buy fossil fuels, therefore to pollute, and by extension, to heat the world. Planet.
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